

Metaverse
AI can predict tipping points before they happen – Crypto News
ANYONE CAN spot a tipping point after it’s been crossed. Also known as critical transitions, such mathematical cliff-edges influence everything from the behaviour of financial markets and the spread of disease to the extinction of species. The financial crisis of 2007-09 is often described as one. So is the moment that covid-19 went global. The real trick, therefore, is to spot them before they happen. But that is fiendishly difficult.
Computer scientists in China now show that artificial intelligence (AI) can help. In a study published in the journal Physical Review X, the researchers accurately predicted the onset of tipping points in complicated systems with the help of machine-learning algorithms. The same technique could help solve real-world problems, they say, such as predicting floods and power outages, buying valuable time.
To simplify their calculations, the team reduced all such problems to ones taking place within a large network of interacting nodes, the individual elements or entities within a large system. In a financial system, for example, a node might represent a single company, and a node in an ecosystem could stand for a species. The team then designed two artificial neural networks to analyse such systems. The first was optimised to track the connections between different nodes; the other, how individual nodes changed over time.
To train their model, the team needed examples of critical transitions for which lots of data were available. These are hard to find in the real world, because—cue circular logic—they are so hard to predict. Instead, the researchers turned to simplified theoretical systems in which tipping points are known to occur. One was the so-called Kuramoto model of synchronised oscillators, familiar to anyone who has seen footage of out-of-sync pendulums beginning to swing together. Another was a model ecosystem used by scientists to simulate abrupt changes, such as a decline in harvested crops or the presence of pests.
When the researchers were happy that their algorithms could predict critical transitions in these systems, they applied them to the real-world problem of how tropical forests turn to savannah. This has happened many times on Earth, but the details of the transformation remain mysterious. Linked to decreased rainfall, this large-scale natural switch in vegetation type has important implications for any wildlife living in the region, as well as the humans who depend on it.
The researchers got hold of more than 20 years of satellite images of tree coverage and mean annual rainfall data from central Africa and identified the times at which three distinct regions transitioned from tropical forest to savannah. They then wanted to see if training their algorithm on data from two of these regions (with each node standing in for a small area of land) could enable it to correctly predict a transition point in the third. It could.
The team then asked the algorithm to identify the conditions that drove the shift to savannah—or, in other words, to predict an oncoming phase transition. The answer was, as expected, down to annual rainfall. But the AI was able to go further. When annual rainfall dropped from 1,800mm to 1,630mm, the results showed that average tree cover dropped by only about 5%. But if the annual precipitation decreased from 1,630mm to about 1,620mm, the algorithm identified that average tree cover suddenly fell by more than 30% further.
This would be a textbook critical transition. And by predicting it from the raw data, the researchers say they have broken new ground in this field. Previous work, whether with or without the assistance of AI, could not connect the dots so well.
Like with many AI systems, only the algorithm knows what specific features and patterns it identifies to make these predictions. Gang Yan at Tongji University in Shanghai, the paper’s lead author, says his team are now trying to discover exactly what they are. That could help improve the algorithm further, and allow better predictions of everything from infectious outbreaks to the next stockmarket crash. Just how important a moment this is, though, remains difficult to predict.
© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Ltd. All rights reserved.
From The Economist, published under licence. The original content can be found on www.economist.com
-
Blockchain7 days ago
On-Chain Tokenization for Payments Professionals – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Copper and P2P.org announce strategic collaboration to elevate institutional staking solutions – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Will Pi Network Price Crash or Rally After 212M Unlocks? – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Billionaire Barry Silbert Says This Is the Next Big Investment Theme for Crypto Assets – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Breaking: Canary Capital Files For Staked Tron ETF – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Interoperability Protocol Asset Surges After a16z Acquires $55,000,000 Worth of the Project’s Native Asset – Crypto News
-
others6 days ago
GBP/USD retreats from YTD high past 1.34 on Fed turmoil – Crypto News
-
others5 days ago
Cantor Partners With Tether, SoftBank, Bitfinex For $3 Billion Bitcoin Bet – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Manta Co-Founder ‘Targeted’ by Lazarus Group in Zoom Phishing Attempt – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Macro Guru Lyn Alden Predicts ‘Pretty Good Performance’ for Bitcoin Over the Coming Months – But There’s a Catch – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Dow Jones Index Hangs On TSMC Earnings to Resist Slip. Will It Hold? – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
Researchers Unveil 3D Tech That Lets Users ‘Touch’ Virtual Items – Crypto News
-
Business1 week ago
Coinbase Faces Renewed Legal Battle as Oregon Revives Old SEC Playbook – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Two Weeks After Trump’s Tariffs, BTC Outperforms S&P 500 by 50% – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Solana founders ‘returning to cypherpunk roots’: Colosseum’s Taylor – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Binance Reveals Major Update For Indian Users: Details – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Crypto, DeFi may widen wealth gap, destabilize finance: BIS report – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Cardano Whales Offload 180 Million ADA In 5 Days – Smart Profit-Taking? – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Altcoin unit bias ‘absolutely destroying’ crypto newbies — Samson Mow – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Cardano Price Safeguards $0.600 Support, Upside Momentum Weakens – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
XRP bulls eye $2.60 – One move can trigger a major squeeze – Crypto News
-
Business1 week ago
Expert Says Solana Price To $2,000 Is Within Reach, Here’s How – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency7 days ago
Bybit CEO: Two-Thirds of Funds From $1.4B Lazarus Group Hack Still Traceable – Crypto News
-
others5 days ago
Australian Dollar receives support as private sector activity expands in April – Crypto News
-
others5 days ago
Tests 99.00 support after pulling back from nine-day EMA – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency5 days ago
Dogecoin ETF? 21Shares files as crypto market sees 12% rally – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
Can Shiba Inu Price Realistically Reach $0.0001? Elliot Wave Analysis Says Yes – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Ethereum Price Stalls In Tight Range – Big Price Move Incoming? – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Ethereum Price Stalls In Tight Range – Big Price Move Incoming? – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Altcoins struggle while stablecoins shine: Is this the new normal? – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
XRP to $50? Technical Analyst Lays Out the Roadmap – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
SEC Greenlights New VanEck ‘Onchain Economy ETF’ That Holds Stocks Tied to the Digital Asset Sector – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Firing Jerome Powell will crash financial markets — Sen. Elizabeth Warren – Crypto News
-
Business1 week ago
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) Price Rallies 150% After This Binance Announcement – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Elizabeth Warren Warns Stock Market Will Crash If Trump Fires Powell, Will Crypto Market Crash Too? – Crypto News
-
Business7 days ago
XRP, Bitcoin, Ethereum Price Prediction: $100M Shorts Wiped as Crypto Market Bounces 2.89% – Crypto News
-
Technology6 days ago
Peter Schiff Predicts Gold Will Soar As Fed Cuts Rates, Will Bitcoin Price Follow? – Crypto News
-
Technology6 days ago
European Central Bank Claims Trump’s Crypto Push to Impact Europe Economy – Crypto News
-
Technology5 days ago
AWS, Microsoft Slow Down Data Center Deployments – Crypto News
-
Technology5 days ago
HashKey, Bosera partner to launch world’s first tokenized money market ETFs – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
Special discounts for Amazon Prime members only! Up to 75% off on vacuum cleaners, water purifier, and more – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
GBP/USD remains on track to post weekly gains – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
XRP Price Holds $2.08 Amid Derivatives Surge and Liquidation Risks – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
OpenAI’s latest AI models are smarter, but they make things up more often. Here’s what we know – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Trump firing Powell would be a ‘very bad precedent to set’ — Pompliano – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Italy Trade Balance EU up to €-0.361B in February from previous €-0.635B – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Bitcoin Ready For $90K? ‘Next Big Move’ Could Come Next Week – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Canary Capital Seeks SEC Approval for Tron ETF With Staking – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Peter Brandt Predicts 50% Crash For ‘Everyone’s Favorite’ XRP Price – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
On-Chain Metrics Suggest Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be Approaching Early Bear Market Phase: Glassnode – Crypto News