Australian Dollar consolidates near the major level post-release of the RBA minutes – Crypto News – Crypto News
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AUD/USD aims to recapture three-day high at 0.6960, US Durable Goods Orders eyed AUD/USD aims to recapture three-day high at 0.6960, US Durable Goods Orders eyed

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Australian Dollar consolidates near the major level post-release of the RBA minutes – Crypto News

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  • Australian Dollar continues to gain post-release of the RBA Meeting Minutes.
  • RBA board members favored to maintain the current interest rates.
  • US Dollar faces challenges due to the dovish comments made by multiple Fed members.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains on the second successive day, remaining firmer against the US Dollar on Tuesday. The pair receives upward support after the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes for the October 2023 meeting were released on Tuesday.

Australia’s central bank board was involved in the consideration of whether to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) or to maintain the current rate. However, the board members concluded that the stronger case was to keep the rates steady. They made this judgment based on factors such as inflation data, employment figures, and updated forecasts, which would be available at the November meeting.

RBA’s board members acknowledged that there were significant concerns about upside risks to inflation. This suggests that the board is cautious about potential factors that could lead to an increase in inflation

Australian Weekly ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey, released on Tuesday, indicates a decline in the nation’s Consumer Confidence. The reading fell to 76.4 compared to the previous figure of 80.1. The decline is observed across all sub-indices, reflecting a more cautious or negative sentiment among consumers.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) faces downward pressure, and this is attributed to the dovish comments made by multiple Federal Reserve officials indicating that no further interest rate hikes are anticipated for the remainder of 2023. The dovish stance suggests a cautious approach by the central bank, emphasizing a reluctance to tighten monetary policy in the current economic environment.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker added to this sentiment by stating on Monday that the central bank should avoid creating new pressures in the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing. Harker further expressed the view that in the absence of a significant shift in the data, the Fed should maintain interest rates at their current levels.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar continues to gain on hawkish RBA minutes

  • RBA could introduce a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Brad Jones, Assistant Governor (Financial System) at the RBA, discussed the tokenization of assets and money in the digital era at The Australian Financial Review Cryptocurrency Summit.
  • Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations for October were reported at 4.8% on Thursday, reflecting a slight increase from the September figure of 4.6%. The rebound in inflation observed in August, primarily influenced by elevated oil prices, raises the likelihood of another interest rate hike by the RBA.
  • The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Friday that Chinese inflation experienced a decrease in September. This development could exert pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD). The Chinese data indicates ongoing economic challenges despite the recent government stimulus plan aimed at supporting the nation in achieving its 5% growth target.
  • The ongoing conflict in the Middle East introduces an additional layer of complexity to the situation. This geopolitical factor could potentially prompt the RBA to implement a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike, reaching 4.35% by the end of the year.
  • Investors appear to be exercising caution in making aggressive bets on the US Dollar (USD), given the uncertainty surrounding the Fed policy rate trajectory. The lack of a clear direction from the Fed on interest rates is influencing market sentiment and contributing to hesitancy among investors.
  • The recovery in US Treasury yields from recent losses is seen as a potential factor that could provide support to the US Dollar. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield stands at 4.72%, by the press time.
  • Additionally, the USD continues to benefit from safe-haven flows amid rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Palestine. Safe-haven currencies, including the US Dollar, tend to attract demand during periods of heightened uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
  • According to an undisclosed source to Reuters, US officials and Israel have engaged in discussions about the possibility of a visit by US President Joe Biden to Israel. The invitation for the visit reportedly came from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
  • Market participants will likely monitor the US Retail Sales and the Fed Beige Book report will also be eyed on Tuesday. The Australian employment data will be released on Thursday. Traders will take cues from these figures and find the trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar hovers around the psychological level at 0.6350 level

The Australian Dollar trades higher around the major level of 0.6350 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The 0.6300 emerges as the significant support level, which aligns with the monthly low at 0.6285. On the upside, a crucial resistance is observed at the major level of 0.6400. This level coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6429 and is lined up with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around the 0.6436 level. These technical indicators provide traders with insights into potential resistance zones that could influence the direction of the Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar price today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
USD   0.04% 0.07% 0.11% -0.24% -0.02% -0.04% 0.04%
EUR -0.05%   0.03% 0.05% -0.28% -0.08% -0.09% -0.01%
GBP -0.09% -0.03%   0.02% -0.33% -0.12% -0.11% -0.05%
CAD -0.10% -0.06% -0.03%   -0.34% -0.13% -0.14% -0.07%
AUD 0.23% 0.27% 0.33% 0.34%   0.20% 0.20% 0.26%
JPY 0.02% 0.07% 0.11% 0.13% -0.21%   -0.01% 0.06%
NZD 0.04% 0.10% 0.13% 0.14% -0.19% 0.02%   0.07%
CHF -0.05% 0.01% 0.05% 0.07% -0.27% -0.07% -0.07%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

RBA FAQs

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.

Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

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