Australian Dollar depreciates ahead of RBA decision – Crypto News – Crypto News
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AUD/USD falls to near 0.6150 after Trump sets tariffs AUD/USD falls to near 0.6150 after Trump sets tariffs

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Australian Dollar depreciates ahead of RBA decision – Crypto News

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  • The Australian Dollar weakens as traders adopt caution ahead of the RBA’s policy decision on Tuesday.
  • The RBA is expected to lower its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%.
  • The US Dollar gains ground due to improved Treasury yields.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pauses its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate cut in four years. However, policymakers may adopt a cautious stance, as trimmed mean inflation remains above the RBA’s 2%-3% target range.

Signs of easing inflation in Australia have increased expectations for a rate cut in February. December data indicated slowing price pressures, with the latest quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising less than forecast in the final quarter of 2024. The RBA’s preferred inflation measure, the Trimmed Mean CPI, climbed 0.5% for the quarter—below the expected 0.6%—while the annualized rate declined to 3.2% from 3.5%.

The AUD/USD pair found support following US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) weakened as a disappointing US retail sales report fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates later this year, despite lingering inflation concerns.

Australian Dollar declines as US Dollar gains ground on improved Treasury yields

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s performance against six major currencies, edges higher after registering losses in the previous three successive sessions due to improved US Treasury yields. The DXY trades around 106.80, while yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds stand at 4.26% and 4.50%, respectively.
  • Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated on Monday that rising asset prices may have slowed the Fed’s recent progress on inflation. While Bowman expects inflation to decline, she cautioned that upside risks remain and emphasized the need for more certainty before considering rate cuts.
  • Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller acknowledged late Monday that while inflation has improved, progress has been “excruciatingly” slow. Waller stressed that the Fed must not allow policy uncertainty to hinder data-driven decision-making.
  • US Census Bureau reported on Friday that Retail Sales fell by 0.9% in January, following a revised 0.7% increase in December (previously reported as 0.4%). This decline was sharper than the market’s expectation of a 0.1% drop.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his semi-annual report to Congress that the board officials “do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates due to strength in the job market and solid economic growth. He added that US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could put more upward pressure on prices, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates.
  • On Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping led a meeting with Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma and other prominent entrepreneurs, signaling Beijing’s renewed support for the private sector, which is now seen as crucial to economic recovery, according to Bloomberg. Xi emphasized the need to eliminate barriers that hinder equal access to production resources and fair market competition.

Australian Dollar moves below 0.6350; support appears at nine-day EMA

AUD/USD trades near 0.6340 on Tuesday, trending upward within an ascending channel pattern, indicating a bullish market bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, further supporting the bullish outlook.

On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may challenge the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6390, followed by the key psychological resistance at 0.6400.

Support levels include the nine-day EMA at 0.6316, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6300. A stronger support zone lies near the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6280.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.18% 0.20% 0.24% 0.13% 0.29% 0.39% 0.12%
EUR -0.18%   0.03% 0.05% -0.05% 0.11% 0.21% -0.06%
GBP -0.20% -0.03%   0.06% -0.07% 0.09% 0.19% -0.08%
JPY -0.24% -0.05% -0.06%   -0.09% 0.06% 0.15% -0.11%
CAD -0.13% 0.05% 0.07% 0.09%   0.16% 0.26% -0.01%
AUD -0.29% -0.11% -0.09% -0.06% -0.16%   0.10% -0.18%
NZD -0.39% -0.21% -0.19% -0.15% -0.26% -0.10%   -0.27%
CHF -0.12% 0.06% 0.08% 0.11% 0.00% 0.18% 0.27%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

 

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