Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin ETFs draw $500M but weak demand leaves rebound exposed – Crypto News

Published

4 weeks ago

July 8, 2026

Dripp

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew nearly $500 million across the last two trading sessions, giving traders their first clear fund-flow rebound in weeks even as several market gauges continued to show weak demand for the top digital asset.

The US ETF products took in $221.72 million on July 2, ending a 10-session outflow streak that had pulled about $2.73 billion from the funds.

After the US Independence Day holiday, the funds added another $265.69 million on July 6, marking their first back-to-back inflows since May.

The ETF rebound gave Bitcoin one of its strongest near-term supports after weeks in which demand from regulated funds had worked against the market. BTC price continues to show resilience around $63,000, rising 7% this month.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of Bitcoin’s clearest gauges of marginal demand, with sustained inflows helping absorb supply and persistent redemptions removing a key source of steady buying.

Despite this reversal, the two-day improvement is not enough to show that investors have returned in force after the recent run of ETF outflows.

US spot buyers have yet to confirm the ETF turn

The fund rebound has not yet been matched by the spot market, where Bitcoin continues to trade at a discount on Coinbase after nearly two months of weaker US demand.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance, has remained negative for 50 consecutive days, according to Coinglass data.

The gauge is widely used as a proxy for U.S. spot demand because Coinbase is a major dollar-based venue, while Binance reflects deeper offshore liquidity.

A positive Coinbase premium usually suggests stronger buying from US-linked participants. A negative reading shows that Bitcoin is cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance, implying that domestic buyers are not bidding as aggressively as offshore traders.

That weakens the bullish interpretation of the ETF rebound. The funds have posted two positive sessions, but the broader US spot market has not yet followed with enough strength to push Coinbase back into a premium.

Historically, stronger Bitcoin advances have often coincided with sustained buying across both ETFs and spot venues.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that Bitcoin remains in a risk-off regime, with weak inter-exchange activity through Coinbase Advanced and no sustained reversal in momentum.

According to him, the negative Coinbase premium continues to indicate weak US spot demand and persistent selling pressure.

Weak absorption is still holding back the recovery

The soft Coinbase signal is part of a broader absorption problem that has kept Bitcoin’s on-chain demand negative for most of the year.

CryptoQuant data show that Bitcoin’s apparent demand remains below zero, suggesting the market has not returned to a sustained accumulation phase.

The metric compares newly issued Bitcoin with changes in the supply that has remained inactive for more than one year. Traders use it to assess whether buyers are absorbing new, liquid supply entering the market.

The reading fell to about -275,000 BTC on June 3, its weakest level of the year. It has since recovered to about -75,000 BTC, showing that pressure has eased from the worst point of the selloff.

Bitcoin Apparent Demand (Source: CryptoQuant)

However, this improvement is still short of a reversal. A negative reading indicates that demand has not been strong enough to absorb available supply on a sustained basis.

So, a more durable turn would require the metric to move into positive territory and stay there, showing that accumulation is again overtaking issuance and liquid supply.

That distinction is central to the current market. Bitcoin can rise when short sellers cover, when liquidity is thin, when macro pressure eases, or when ETF flows improve for a few sessions.

A stronger trend usually needs evidence that long-term holders and fresh buyers are removing enough coins from circulation.

Exchange balances are not yet offering that evidence.