Bitcoin Halving Cycle Won’t Hurt Prices In 2025, SC Says – Crypto News

Global bank Standard Chartered is bullish on Bitcoin for the rest of the year, citing increasing corporate treasury buying and strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows.

Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin (BTC) to print new highs of $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and then break $200,000 by the end of the year, the bank’s digital asset research head, Geoff Kendrick, said in a Wednesday report shared with Cointelegraph.

“Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a ‘halving’ cycle,” Kendrick said, adding that the common halving trend would have led to price declines in September or October 2025.

The latest report reinforces Standard Chartered’s bullishness on Bitcoin, with the bank expecting it to hit $500,000 a coin by 2028.

Bitcoin halving cycle is dead

In his new analysis, Standard Chartered’s Kendrick focused on the potential impacts of the Bitcoin halving cycle, a price pattern associated with BTC halving events, which occur about every four years.

Cutting the Bitcoin mining reward by 50% each halving, BTC halving events have been historically linked to both subsequent spikes in the price and further corrections.

While the two previous halving cycles in 2016 and 2020 led to Bitcoin prices falling in about 18 months after the halving, the impact of the latest Bitcoin halving in April 2024 will likely be different due to new drivers like strong ETF and corporate buying, Kendrick suggested.

Related: Crypto ETP inflows in H1 2025 down 2.7% from last year’s $18.3B

“We expect prices to resume their uptrend, supported by continued strong ETF and Bitcoin treasury buying,” Kendrick wrote in the update, emphasizing that both of these drivers were absent in the previous halving cycles.

At the same time, Standard Chartered still doesn’t rule out that the price could be somewhat choppy in late Q3 and early Q4 amid concerns about the correction pattern from the previous halvings.

Bitcoin ETFs see outflows after 15 days of inflows

Kendrick’s latest insights on the bullish impact of ETFs and corporate buying against the pressure from the halving cycle came as spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative after 15 days of inflows.

According to data from SoSoValue, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $342.3 million of outflows on Tuesday, marking their first outflows since June 6. The outflows accounted for 7% of the total $4.8 billion inflows seen in the 15-day run.

According to Kendrick, Bitcoin ETF flows and corporate treasury buying totalled 245,000 BTC in Q2. “We expect that level to be exceeded in both Q3 and Q4,” he added.

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