Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin price faces midweek squeeze that will decide whether $60,000 holds – Crypto News

Published

1 month ago

June 23, 2026

Dripp

Bitcoin price faces back-to-back tests this week, with May PCE coming out on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT and more than $10 billion in Bitcoin options settling on Deribit at 08:00 UTC Friday in the quarterly expiry that closes the second quarter.

Bitcoin is trading near $62,500 after a rough June that briefly pushed it under $60,000 and left it ranging between $62,000 and $67,000.

A surprise in the inflation print could land while billions in contracts are already sliding toward settlement, with the hedging that follows risking a sharper move than the data alone would produce.

bitcoin options open interest by expiry deribit — Chart showing the open interest for Bitcoin options on Deribit by expiry as of June 23, 2026 (Source: Deribit)

We’ve seen this play out once already this year. On March 27, $14.1 billion in Bitcoin options and $2.2 billion in Ethereum contracts expired into a market hit by an oil shock, rising yields, and fading rate-cut hopes, and Bitcoin dropped toward $66,200 that morning as dealer hedging turned an ordinary drop into a faster one.

A hot PCE inflation backdrop

The last PCE report gave the Fed cover to stay tight, with headline PCE rising 3.8% in April from a year earlier, nearly double the 2% target, and core holding at 3.3%, its highest since October 2023.

Thursday’s release covers data for May and follows a 6.5% annual jump in producer prices, the fastest since November 2022, driven by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict that tend to feed consumer inflation with a lag.

The Fed has leaned into that data. At Kevin Warsh’s first meeting on June 17, the committee held its rate at 3.50%-3.75%, dropped its easing language, and raised its year-end PCE forecast to 3.6% from 2.7%.

This pushed the odds of a 2026 cut toward zero and a December hike toward 85%, with May CPI already running at 4.2%. The 2-year Treasury yield has since climbed to 4.22%, and the dollar sits at its highest in over a year.

PCE moves Bitcoin because it resets the price of liquidity, so a higher number would make Fed relief almost impossible to price, lift real yields and the dollar, and keep bonds looking more attractive than a non-yielding asset.

Institutional money is already pulling back, with spot Bitcoin funds shedding a record $4.4 billion over 13 trading days in late May and early June, and continuing to leak since then. Farside data shows the ETFs were down about $2.27 billion in June through the 18th, almost all of it from BlackRock’s IBIT.

That removes a steady source of demand right as the market needs buyers, and it’s part of why dips have been getting bought less aggressively than earlier in the year. A softer print would reverse the pressure, easing yields and the dollar and reopening the risk-on path crypto bulls have wanted since spring.