BTC Eyes a Rare December Rally To Beat Strong Bearish Odds – Crypto News

Bitcoin (BTC) entered the new month with a statistical headwind it has never overcome: every time November ended in the red, BTC struggled to turn bullish in December. Yet this year’s structure looks materially different, with momentum, liquidity rotation, and cycle deviations pushing against what has been a 100% bearish seasonal setup.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s bearish December period could change with reduced leverage, and price reclaiming a key technical level, hinting at a more stable setup.

• Macroeconomic liquidity and M2 velocity are diverging from Bitcoin’s buying activity, which is usually seen in the middle stages of a bull market.

• Bitcoin’s cycle structure has evolved, with spot ETF inflows and global liquidity dynamics altering the traditional halving-based cycles.

Seasonality breakers and the case of cycle deviation for BTC

Bitcoin returns in Q4 have long reflected strong seasonality, with a weak December performance typically following a negative November. Yet market structure has somewhat diverged sharply from past cycles in 2025. 

BTC’s price has returned above its monthly rolling volume-weighted average price (rVWAP) levels, signalling controlled distribution and high-timeframe trend adoption. A significant drop in open interest from $94 billion to $60 billion has normalized or reset the market without killing spot inflows, creating a cleaner base for continuation.

From a technical standpoint, deep liquidity clusters have migrated from November’s downside liquidation, totalling around $1 billion near $80,000, to the upside inefficient clusters. At the moment, $3 billion in cumulative short positions would be liquidated at $96,000 and over $7 billion once BTC hits $100,000.

Thus, these factors do suggest that December could be mispriced relative to its historical probability curve of Bitcoin’s performance.

Still, the current momentum can be deceiving. Cointelegraph noted that the taker buy/sell ratio near 1.17 showed urgency, not depth, and often appeared when positioning is crowded. Anonymous market analyst EndGame Macro said that it reflected aggressive buys but not necessarily sustainable accumulation.

Simultaneously, M2 velocity has flattened, signaling that the broader economic engine may be losing momentum even as risk assets continue to stretch higher. This creates a setup typical of late market-cycle phases, where markets get louder while the underlying economy gets quieter.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s attempt to establish its first-ever green December after a negative November becomes a test of whether positioning can overpower broader market fundamentals.

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A change beyond the traditional halving clock

Over the past few months, analysts have argued that a four-year cycle for Bitcoin does not fully explain BTC’s current market structure. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that the four-year cycle hasn’t disappeared, but it no longer aligns cleanly with time-based expectations.

Spot BTC ETF inflows have introduced a constant, structural bid, accelerating price discovery and raising Bitcoin’s effective floor compared with earlier cycles.

Van de Poppe argued that this cycle resembles an extended liquidity phase, similar to mid-2016 or late 2019, when risk assets strengthened despite uneven macroeconomic data.

Supporting indicators, such as the CNY/USD correlation with ETH/BTC, typically turn higher early in expansionary windows, not near market cycle peaks. 

Meanwhile, business-cycle signals, such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), are slowly improving, alongside gold’s relative strength, suggesting that risk appetite is rebuilding from cyclical lows rather than weakening. Van de Popped added,

“Now, if we combine the business cycle strength/weakness with Bitcoin cycles, then again, the correlation is quite clear. This stage is comparable to Q1/2 2016, Q4 2019. We’re nowhere near a top on Bitcoin, and we’re still in the final easy cycle of crypto with exorbitant returns.”

In this context, Bitcoin’s December setup depends less on repeating historical seasonality and more on whether new structural forces, such as spot ETF inflows, liquidity rotation, and shifting macroeconomic correlations, outweigh older halving-driven cycles.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.