Crypto’s CLARITY push heats up, but prediction markets aren’t buying the August deadline – Crypto News – Crypto News
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Crypto’s CLARITY push heats up, but prediction markets aren’t buying the August deadline Crypto’s CLARITY push heats up, but prediction markets aren’t buying the August deadline

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Crypto’s CLARITY push heats up, but prediction markets aren’t buying the August deadline – Crypto News

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A coalition of more than 200 companies and organizations sent a letter dated June 7 to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, urging them to bring the CLARITY Act to the full Senate floor for a vote without delay.

Signed by Stand With Crypto, the Blockchain Association, the Crypto Council for Innovation, and The Digital Chamber, the letter frames the bill as a competitiveness imperative, arguing that without a federal framework, digital asset activity will continue moving to offshore jurisdictions with weaker consumer protections and less transparency.

The push comes roughly three weeks after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act on May 14 by a 15-9 bipartisan vote. The bill now awaits floor scheduling, but Senate leadership has not publicly committed to a timeline.

Per Davis Wright Tremaine’s analysis, the Senate Banking Committee’s substitute text still needs to be reconciled with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act before full Senate consideration, and any version the Senate passes would then need to be reconciled with the House-passed CLARITY Act.

Four crypto industry groups and more than 200 co-signers sent a joint letter to Senate leaders on June 7, urging a floor vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

Senate GOP allies amplify the urgency

Sen. Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill’s most vocal champions, posted June 7 that CLARITY “passed committee” and that “the floor is next,” adding that supporters did not travel this far “to quit at the 5-yard line.”

Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott followed on June 8, saying CLARITY “takes the side of everyday Americans” and would bring digital assets into a “safer, fairer, and more transparent” system.

As chair of the committee whose panel drove the bipartisan 15-9 vote that moved the bill to this stage, Scott’s involvement goes beyond standard floor advocacy.

The Crypto Council for Innovation and Hedera both posted June 8 that they joined the coalition letter and echoed the call for Senate leadership to schedule consideration “as soon as possible.”

The coalition letter’s momentum runs into another letter, sent June 4 and signed by the National Consumers League, Americans for Financial Reform, Consumer Federation of America, Public Citizen, and other advocacy groups, urging Thune and Schumer to oppose the Senate version.

The letter cites three objections: weak Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering requirements, insufficient ethics provisions, and a stablecoin-yield loophole.

Those objections target the exact provisions that Democratic vote-counters and some moderate Republicans have flagged as needing revision before floor consideration, and they explain why a large coalition on one side has not produced a floor vote date.

Cartoon legal documents, a briefcase, a token, and a calendar walking through a Capitol hallway to illustrate crypto regulation and CLARITY Act deadlines.

Markets price the disconnect between noise and outcome

Polymarket’s contract on whether CLARITY gets signed into law in 2026 sat at 62% on June 3 and fell to 51% by June 8.

Kalshi’s market implied probability that a crypto market structure law passes before August dropped from 39.7% to 22.1% over the same window. Kalshi’s contract on whether any such law passes before 2027 moved only marginally, from 52.1% to 51.5%, suggesting traders see an outside shot at full-year enactment but have sharply cut their estimate of a fast signing.

Odds for CLARITY signing in 2026
Prediction market odds on CLARITY Act passage fell across all three contracts between June 3 and June 8, with Kalshi’s before-August contract dropping 17.6 points.

Outside forecasters have moved in the same direction, with Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn reportedly trimming his 2026 CLARITY passage estimate from 75% to 60% on Senate calendar risk, while JPMorgan has put its own estimate below 50%.

Prediction market traders have pulled back even as institutional backers reached their loudest point since committee passage.

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