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Gold stands firm near all-time peak; bulls seem unaffected by risk-on mood – Crypto News
- Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid trade jitters and geopolitical risks.
- Bets that the Fed will cut rates several times this year further benefit the yellow metal.
- A modest USD bounce and the risk-on mood might cap the upside for the XAU/USD pair.
Gold price (XAU/USD) retains its bullish bias through the early European session on Tuesday and currently trades around the $3,010 area or the all-time peak. Persistent uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s policies, US recession fears, and geopolitical risks continue to push the safe-haven precious metal higher for the second straight day. This also marks the fifth day of a positive move for the commodity in the previous six and is further fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs several times this year.
The XAU/USD bulls, meanwhile, seem rather unaffected by the prevalent risk-on environment, which remains well supported by the optimism over China’s stimulus measures and hopes for a Ukraine peace deal. Even a modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from a multi-month low touched on Monday does little to hinder the positive move, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Traders, however, might refrain from placing fresh bullish bets and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls retain control amid rising trade tensions, geopolitical risks
- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it is carrying out “extensive strikes” in the Gaza Strip and targeting what it called “terror targets” belonging to Hamas. This comes after talks to extend the Gaza ceasefire failed to reach an agreement at meetings in Qatar, raising the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region.
- Concerns about the economic slowdown resurfaced after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday there were no guarantees that the U.S. economy will avoid recession this year. This further underpins demand for traditional safe-haven assets and lifts the Gold price to a fresh all-time peak during the Asian session on Tuesday.
- On the economic data front, the US Census Bureau reported on Monday that US Retail Sales rose by 0.2% in February vs the downwardly revised decline of 1.2% the prior month. The reading fell short of expectations for a 0.7% growth, signaling consumer caution and lifting bets that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle.
- The Fed funds futures suggest that the US central bank could lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points each at the June, July, and October monetary policy meetings. This might cap the attempted US Dollar recovery from its lowest level since October 2024 touched on Monday and is further seen acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
- Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism that Russia and Ukraine will be able to come to a ceasefire and ultimately a peace deal. This comes ahead of the Trump-Putin peace talks on Tuesday, which, along with the optimism led by China’s stimulus measures announced over the weekend, remains supportive of the upbeat market mood.
- Traders now look to Tuesday’s US economic docket – featuring the release of Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production data. The focus, however, will remain glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which will drive the USD demand in the near term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the XAU/USD pair.
Gold price technical setup supports prospects for additional gains; overbought daily RSI warrants caution
From a technical perspective, acceptance above the $3,000 psychological mark could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. That said, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has started flashing slightly overbought conditions. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three months or so.
Meanwhile, any corrective slide below the $2,980-2,978 immediate support could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $2,956 resistance breakpoint. A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,930-2,928 horizontal zone en route to the $2,900 round figure and last week’s swing low, around the $2,880 region.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
