US Dollar eases a touch ahead of PMI with weekly gain not at risk – Crypto News – Crypto News
Connect with us
There is a risk it could drop further in the near-term – MUFG There is a risk it could drop further in the near-term – MUFG

others

US Dollar eases a touch ahead of PMI with weekly gain not at risk – Crypto News

Published

1 year ago

on

  • The US Dollar trades higher for the week after European PMI’s sink lower. 
  • Markets will focus on the  US S&P Global PMI data for June on Friday. 
  • The US Dollar index trades in the green and could lock in a third consecutive week of gains. 

The US Dollar (USD) falls back a bit to test the European low, after earlier edging higher on Friday ahead of the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for June. The US Dollar shot higher in the last hours, with the Greenback outpacing the Japanese Yen (JPY) again, hitting 159.00 at USD/JPY, whilst tech wale Nvidia dove over 3% and lost $91 billion at the US closing bell. 

On the economic data front, earlier in the day, S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) released the Eurozone PMI data for June, showing lower-than-expected numbers. Manufacturing data further deepened into contraction at 45.6, while the services sector index fell to 52.6 from 53.2 in May. On the US side, traders will especially focus on the services component, as it accounts for two-thirds of the economy. Expectations for the US S&P Global Services PMI range from 55.00 to 52.00, with the previous month’s number at 54.8. 

Daily digest market movers: Compairing PMI’s 

  • Masato Kanda, vice-minister for international affairs at Japan’s Ministry of Finance, said that Japan is ready to take proper action on FX when needed. This comment sent the US Dollar back up to 159 against the Japanese Yen.
  • Preliminary S&P Global/HCOB PMI data for France, Germany, and the Eurozone showed worst-than-expected numbers. As a result, the Euro retreats further against the US Dollar, falling below 1.07.
  • At 13:45 GMT, S&P Global will release the June’s PMI preliminary reading per sector:
    • Services sector is expected to ease to 53.7 from 54.8 in May.
    • Manufacturing should remain rather stable, t showing 51.00 in June from 51.3 the previous month.
    • The Composite Index was at 54.5 in May, with no consensus view available. 
  • At 14:00 GMT, in the slipstream of the US PMI release, Existing Home Sales data for May will be released. The expected number is 4.10 million in May, down from the 4.14 million seen in April. 
  • Equities are still trying to recover from the massive punch they received from the $91 billion value evaporating in Nvidia. There are red numbers across the board and across the globe for all major indices. 
  • The CME Fedwatch futures for September are backing a rate cut, with odds now standing at 57.9% for a 25 basis point cut. A rate pause stands at a 35.9% chance, while a 50-basis-point rate cut has a slim 6.2% possibility. 
  • The US 10-year benchmark rate is trading at 4.243, right in the middle of this week’s range after briefly hitting 4.29% on Thursday. 

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Still outperforming?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is breaking higher and has good odds to lock in a third consecutive week of gains. Although refraining from any soccer analogies, looking at the chart, it is quite clear that the Greenback has not played a good game this week. However, what counts is the end result, and that looks to be a win for the Greenback with a big thank you to the weaker Japanese Yen, France’s political turmoil, and the further contracting PMIs in Europe as main drivers. 

On the upside, there are no big changes to the levels traders need to watch out for. The first level to watch is 105.88, which triggered a rejection at the start of May and will likely play its role as resistance again. Further up, the biggest challenge remains at 106.51, the year-to-date high from April 16. 

On the downside, that 105.52 level is first support ahead of the trifecta of Simple Moving Averages (SMA) is still playing as support. First is the 55-day SMA at 105.14, safeguarding the 105.00 figure. A touch lower, near 104.61 and 104.48, both the 100-day and the 200-day SMA are forming a double layer of protection to support any declines. Should this area be broken, look for 104.00 to salvage the situation. 

Inflation FAQs

Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

 

Related Topics:
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Trending