USD/INR gains ground ahead of the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony – Crypto News – Crypto News
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Rising wedge, RSI retreat tease Indian rupee buyers around 79.80 Rising wedge, RSI retreat tease Indian rupee buyers around 79.80

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USD/INR gains ground ahead of the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony – Crypto News

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  • Indian Rupee edges lower amid the modest USD rebound. 
  • The RBI’s cautious monetary policy approach should strengthen the Indian rupee over time.
  • Investors await Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Wednesday for fresh impetus. 

Indian Rupee (INR) trades on a weaker note on Wednesday as traders await fresh catalysts later in the week. The downbeat Indian Services PMI data for February exerts some selling pressure on the INR. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.6 in February from 53.4 in January, worse than the estimation of 53.0. The report indicated that inflationary pressures in India were coming down.

Nonetheless, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut policy rates before the RBI. This, in turn, provides some support to the Indian Rupee (INR) and might cap the upside of USD/INR. 

Investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, which offers some hints about the timing of the interest rate cuts. On Friday, the US labor market data will be released. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is estimated to add 200,000 jobs in February, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.7%. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains vulnerable amid the global factors  

  • The recent HSBC Services PMI data showed the second-weakest cost pressures in the sector since August 2020 and the slowest pace increase in selling charges for two years.
  • According to the global rating agency Moody’s, India’s 2024 GDP growth forecast has been raised to 6.8% from the earlier estimate of 6.1% in November 2023.
  • The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) GDP growth estimate for FY24 is 7%, while the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast is 6.7%.
  • The US ISM Services PMI slipped to 52.6 in February from 53.4 in January, weaker than the expectation of 53.0. 
  • The New Orders Index improved to 56.1 from 55.0 in the previous reading. The Employment Index dropped to 48.0 versus 50.5 prior, and the Prices Paid Index declined to 58.6 from 64.0 in the previous reading. 

Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee remains confined within a longer-term range

Indian Rupee weakens on the day. USD/INR extends the range play around 82.65-83.15, a multi-month-old descending trend channel since December 8, 2023. 

The bearish outlook of USD/INR remains intact as the pair is below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average on the daily chart. It’s worth noting that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms the bearish momentum as it lies below the 50.0 midlines, which supports the sellers for the time being. 

A decisive break above the crucial resistance at 83.00, portraying the 100-day EMA and a psychological round figure, USD/INR might climb to the next upside targets at the upper boundary of the descending trend channel at 83.15. Further north, the additional upside filter to watch is a high of January 2 at 83.35, en route to 84.00. 

On the downside, the initial support level is seen at the lower limit of the descending trend channel at 82.65. Any follow-through selling might set its sights on the bearish targets at a low of August 23 at 82.45, and finally a low of June 1 at 82.25.

US Dollar price today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

  USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
USD   0.04% 0.04% -0.04% -0.07% -0.05% 0.04% 0.11%
EUR -0.04%   0.00% -0.07% -0.13% -0.08% 0.00% 0.07%
GBP -0.04% 0.00%   -0.07% -0.14% -0.08% 0.00% 0.06%
CAD 0.02% 0.08% 0.05%   -0.07% -0.01% 0.06% 0.13%
AUD 0.07% 0.15% 0.14% 0.06%   0.06% 0.13% 0.20%
JPY 0.05% 0.07% 0.06% 0.02% -0.05%   0.08% 0.12%
NZD -0.04% 0.01% 0.00% -0.06% -0.13% -0.07%   0.09%
CHF -0.10% -0.07% -0.06% -0.13% -0.20% -0.14% -0.07%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

Indian Rupee FAQs

The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.

Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.

Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

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