

Metaverse
What will humans do if technology solves everything? – Crypto News
That is one question considered in a new publication by Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at the University of Oxford, whose last book argued that humanity faced a one-in-six chance of being wiped out in the next 100 years, perhaps owing to the development of dangerous forms of artificial intelligence (AI). In Mr Bostrom’s latest book, “Deep Utopia”, he considers a rather different outcome. What happens if AI goes extraordinarily well? Under one scenario Mr Bostrom contemplates, the technology progresses to the point at which it can do all economically valuable work at near-zero cost. Under a yet more radical scenario, even tasks that you might think would be reserved for humans, such as parenting, can be done better by AI. This may sound more dystopian than utopian, but Mr Bostrom argues otherwise.
Start with the first scenario, which Mr Bostrom labels a “post-scarcity” utopia. In such a world, the need for work would be reduced. Almost a century ago John Maynard Keynes wrote an essay entitled “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren”, which predicted that 100 years into the future his wealthy descendants would need to work for only 15 hours a week. This has not quite come to pass, but working time has fallen greatly. In the rich world average weekly working hours have dropped from more than 60 in the late 19th century to fewer than 40 today. The typical American spends a third of their waking hours on leisure activities and sports. In the future, they may wish to spend their time on things beyond humanity’s current conception. As Mr Bostrom writes, when aided by powerful tech, “the space of possible-for-us experiences extends far beyond those that are accessible to us with our present unoptimised brains.”
Yet Mr Bostrom’s label of a “post-scarcity” utopia might be slightly misleading: the economic explosion caused by superintelligence would still be limited by physical resources, most notably land. Although space exploration may hugely increase the building space available, it will not make it infinite. There are also intermediate worlds where humans develop powerful new forms of intelligence, but do not become space-faring. In such worlds, wealth may be fantastic, but lots of it could be absorbed by housing—much as is the case in rich countries today.
“Positional goods”, which boost the status of their owners, are also still likely to exist and are, by their nature, scarce. Even if AIs surpass humans in art, intellect, music and sport, humans will probably continue to derive value from surpassing their fellow humans, for example by having tickets to the hottest events. In 1977 Fred Hirsch, an economist, argued in “The Social Limits to Growth” that, as wealth increases, a greater fraction of human desire consists of positional goods. Time spent competing goes up, the price of such goods increases and so their share of GDP rises. This pattern may continue in an AI utopia.
Mr Bostrom notes some types of competition are a failure of co-ordination: if everyone agrees to stop competing, they would have time for other, better things, which could further boost growth. Yet some types of competition, such as sport, have intrinsic value, and are worth preserving. (Humans may also have nothing better to do.) Interest in chess has grown since IBM’s Deep Blue first defeated Garry Kasparov, then world champion, in 1997. An entire industry has emerged around e-sports, where computers can comfortably defeat humans. Their revenues are expected to grow at a 20% annual rate over the next decade, reaching nearly $11bn by 2032. Several groups in society today give us a sense of how future humans might spend their time. Aristocrats and bohemians enjoy the arts. Monastics live within themselves. Athletes spend their lives on sport. The retired dabble in all these pursuits.
Everyone’s early retirement
Won’t tasks such as parenting remain the refuge of humans? Mr Bostrom is not so sure. He argues that beyond the post-scarcity world lies a “post-instrumental” one, in which AIs would become superhuman at child care, too. Keynes himself wrote that “there is no country and no people, I think, who can look forward to the age of leisure and of abundance without a dread. For we have been trained too long to strive and not to enjoy…To judge from the behaviour and the achievements of the wealthy classes today in any quarter of the world, the outlook is very depressing!” The Bible puts it more succinctly: “idle hands are the devil’s workshop.”
These dynamics suggest a “paradox of progress”. Although most humans want a better world, if tech becomes too advanced, they may lose purpose. Mr Bostrom argues that most people would still enjoy activities that have intrinsic value, such as eating tasty food. Utopians, believing life had become too easy, might decide to challenge themselves, perhaps by colonising a new planet to try to re-engineer civilisation from scratch. At some point, however, even such adventures might cease to feel worthwhile. It is an open question how long humans would be happy hopping between passions, as Peer does in “Permutation City”. Economists have long believed that humans have “unlimited wants and desires”, suggesting there are endless variations on things people would like to consume. With the arrival of an AI utopia, this would be put to the test. Quite a lot would ride on the result.
For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter.
© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under licence. The original content can be found on www.economist.com
Milestone Alert!
Livemint tops charts as the fastest growing news website in the world 🌏 Click here to know more.
3.6 Crore Indians visited in a single day choosing us as India’s undisputed platform for General Election Results. Explore the latest updates here!
Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.
Published: 09 Jun 2024, 07:04 PM IST
-
Blockchain7 days ago
On-Chain Tokenization for Payments Professionals – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Copper and P2P.org announce strategic collaboration to elevate institutional staking solutions – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Will Pi Network Price Crash or Rally After 212M Unlocks? – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Billionaire Barry Silbert Says This Is the Next Big Investment Theme for Crypto Assets – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Breaking: Canary Capital Files For Staked Tron ETF – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Interoperability Protocol Asset Surges After a16z Acquires $55,000,000 Worth of the Project’s Native Asset – Crypto News
-
others6 days ago
GBP/USD retreats from YTD high past 1.34 on Fed turmoil – Crypto News
-
others5 days ago
Cantor Partners With Tether, SoftBank, Bitfinex For $3 Billion Bitcoin Bet – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Macro Guru Lyn Alden Predicts ‘Pretty Good Performance’ for Bitcoin Over the Coming Months – But There’s a Catch – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Dow Jones Index Hangs On TSMC Earnings to Resist Slip. Will It Hold? – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
Researchers Unveil 3D Tech That Lets Users ‘Touch’ Virtual Items – Crypto News
-
Business1 week ago
Coinbase Faces Renewed Legal Battle as Oregon Revives Old SEC Playbook – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Two Weeks After Trump’s Tariffs, BTC Outperforms S&P 500 by 50% – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Solana founders ‘returning to cypherpunk roots’: Colosseum’s Taylor – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Binance Reveals Major Update For Indian Users: Details – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Crypto, DeFi may widen wealth gap, destabilize finance: BIS report – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Cardano Whales Offload 180 Million ADA In 5 Days – Smart Profit-Taking? – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Altcoin unit bias ‘absolutely destroying’ crypto newbies — Samson Mow – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Cardano Price Safeguards $0.600 Support, Upside Momentum Weakens – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
XRP bulls eye $2.60 – One move can trigger a major squeeze – Crypto News
-
Business1 week ago
Expert Says Solana Price To $2,000 Is Within Reach, Here’s How – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Bybit CEO: Two-Thirds of Funds From $1.4B Lazarus Group Hack Still Traceable – Crypto News
-
others5 days ago
Australian Dollar receives support as private sector activity expands in April – Crypto News
-
others5 days ago
Tests 99.00 support after pulling back from nine-day EMA – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency5 days ago
Dogecoin ETF? 21Shares files as crypto market sees 12% rally – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Ethereum Price Stalls In Tight Range – Big Price Move Incoming? – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Ethereum Price Stalls In Tight Range – Big Price Move Incoming? – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Altcoins struggle while stablecoins shine: Is this the new normal? – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
XRP to $50? Technical Analyst Lays Out the Roadmap – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
SEC Greenlights New VanEck ‘Onchain Economy ETF’ That Holds Stocks Tied to the Digital Asset Sector – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Firing Jerome Powell will crash financial markets — Sen. Elizabeth Warren – Crypto News
-
Business1 week ago
Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) Price Rallies 150% After This Binance Announcement – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Elizabeth Warren Warns Stock Market Will Crash If Trump Fires Powell, Will Crypto Market Crash Too? – Crypto News
-
Business1 week ago
XRP, Bitcoin, Ethereum Price Prediction: $100M Shorts Wiped as Crypto Market Bounces 2.89% – Crypto News
-
Technology7 days ago
Peter Schiff Predicts Gold Will Soar As Fed Cuts Rates, Will Bitcoin Price Follow? – Crypto News
-
Technology6 days ago
European Central Bank Claims Trump’s Crypto Push to Impact Europe Economy – Crypto News
-
Technology5 days ago
AWS, Microsoft Slow Down Data Center Deployments – Crypto News
-
Technology5 days ago
HashKey, Bosera partner to launch world’s first tokenized money market ETFs – Crypto News
-
Blockchain4 days ago
Strike’s Mallers to head firm seeking superior Bitcoin play to MSTR – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
Special discounts for Amazon Prime members only! Up to 75% off on vacuum cleaners, water purifier, and more – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
GBP/USD remains on track to post weekly gains – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
XRP Price Holds $2.08 Amid Derivatives Surge and Liquidation Risks – Crypto News
-
Technology1 week ago
OpenAI’s latest AI models are smarter, but they make things up more often. Here’s what we know – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Trump firing Powell would be a ‘very bad precedent to set’ — Pompliano – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Italy Trade Balance EU up to €-0.361B in February from previous €-0.635B – Crypto News
-
Blockchain1 week ago
Bitcoin Ready For $90K? ‘Next Big Move’ Could Come Next Week – Crypto News
-
Cryptocurrency1 week ago
Canary Capital Seeks SEC Approval for Tron ETF With Staking – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Peter Brandt Predicts 50% Crash For ‘Everyone’s Favorite’ XRP Price – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
On-Chain Metrics Suggest Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be Approaching Early Bear Market Phase: Glassnode – Crypto News
-
others1 week ago
Controversial Exchange eXch To Shutter in May Amid Allegations the Project Laundered Crypto Stolen in Bybit Hack – Crypto News