Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) could have dropped much more last week after one on-chain metric repeated its move from the FTX crash.<\/p>\n As noted<\/a> on Sep. 5 by James Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, the SLRV Ratio has \u201cflipped\u201d for the first time since November 2022.<\/p>\n BTC price weakness is getting market observers ready for a drop toward $23,000<\/a>, but the fallout from Bitcoin\u2019s August comedown could have been much worse.<\/p>\n According to the Short to Long-Term Realized Value (SLRV) Ratio, a spike in sales of \u201colder\u201d bitcoins occurred in mid-August.<\/p>\n Devised<\/a> by famed analyst David Puell and ARK Invest, SLRV uses the popular HODL Waves metric to track Bitcoin on-chain velocity.<\/p>\n HODL Waves<\/a> split up the circulating BTC supply by the age of coins used in transactions. SLRV takes coins that previously moved within the past 24 hours and divides them by those which previously moved between six and twelve months ago.<\/p>\n The metric also includes two moving averages \u2014 the 30-day and 150-day trendlines \u2014 and crossovers between these have coincided with key BTC price events.<\/p>\n Just before the FTX meltdown, the 150-day line crossed the 30-day line \u2014 and in mid-August, the phenomenon repeated for the first time since then.<\/p>\n \u201cSLRV ribbons inverted on August 13, three days before Bitcoin drops to $25k. Last time the metric inverted was just before the FTX collapse,\u201d Staten wrote in part of commentary on a chart of SLRV from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.<\/p>\n Previous analysis has meanwhile paid close attention to behavior of Bitcoin investor cohorts.<\/p>\n Related: Bitcoin speculators now own the least BTC since $69K all-time highs<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Those hodling BTC for 155 days or less, known as short-term holders or speculators, compared to longer-term hodlers, are of particular interest to Glassnode, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant and others.<\/p>\n The short-term holder cost basis<\/a> \u2014 the aggregate price at which STHs accumulated their share of the BTC supply \u2014 previously acted as market support, but this appears to no longer be the case.<\/p>\n The STH cost basis currently sits above spot price, with Straten reporting that speculators sold en masse at a loss<\/a> since late August.<\/p>\nBitcoin SLRV Ratio channels FTX warning<\/h2>\n
Speculators wind down BTC exposure<\/h2>\n
![](\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2023-09\/c0a00fbd-e3ac-40cb-81e0-a9ad063867bd.png\")