Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) starts the new week with optimism as traders greet the first green weekly candle in over a month.<\/p>\n BTC price strength appears to be gradually improving after a weak August and start of September, with BTC\/USD climbing toward $27,000.<\/p>\n A solid weekly close provides the backdrop to what promises to be an interesting few days, which will include a key United States macroeconomic event as a potential volatility driver.<\/p>\n The U.S. Federal Reserve will meet to decide on interest rate policy, and any surprises could have significant repercussions for risk assets, including crypto.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, things are looking promising for Bitcoin, with network fundamentals set to surge higher to new records.<\/p>\n Strength \u201cunder the hood\u201d is similarly being reflected in hodler behavior, with wallet numbers continuing to shoot higher regardless of BTC price action.<\/p>\n Cointelegraph takes a look at these topics and more as Bitcoin begins what is likely its most eagerly-awaited week of September.<\/p>\n Bitcoin offered little volatility<\/a> over the weekend, but calmer trading conditions are already being challenged into the new week, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro<\/a> and TradingView<\/a>\u00a0shows.<\/p>\n The Sept. 17 weekly close soon gave way to upside volatility, and at the time of writing, bulls are attempting to build on that foundation to crack new month-to-date highs.<\/p>\n Popular trader Credible Crypto thus suggested that the weekend zone could well form a \u201clocal bottom.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThis region continues to be defended, with buyers stepping in here once again. Has the makings of a local bottom\/base being formed imo,\u201d he told<\/a> X (formerly Twitter) subscribers overnight, alongside a chart of order book liquidity on the largest global exchange, Binance.<\/p>\n \u201cI think we probs push back up to 27k+ soon.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n A prior post noted<\/a> the lack of promise in shorting at weekend levels, with bid liquidity improving.<\/p>\n The weekly close meanwhile excited Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, who saw key support holding at the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).<\/p>\n \u201cBitcoin is closing above the 200-Week EMA, which is vital for bullish continuation,\u201d he explained<\/a>. <\/p>\n \u201cNext week we should continue to do so and price starts to look similar to the 2015\/2016 cycle.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Van de Poppe uploaded a chart showing the interplay between the spot price and the 200-week EMA, currently at $25,700, since 2020.<\/p>\n \u201cMarkets are consolidating with a weekly close strongly above the 200-Week EMA for Bitcoin. The chances of the correction to be finished are increasing day by day,\u201d he added<\/a> in a separate post.<\/p>\n Some are staying sober on the outlook for Bitcoin into 2024. Among them is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who continues to eye the potential for a bearish double-top pattern to play out on weekly timeframes.<\/p>\n \u201cMake no mistake – Bitcoin is in an early stage Bull Market,\u201d he wrote<\/a> in part of weekend X analysis. <\/p>\n \u201cLong-term the outlook is bullish. Mid-term? Over the next 7 months, we may or may not get 1 last major correction. Will it happen? It would be wise to at least be ready for it if it does.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n This week, the word on everyone\u2019s lips is FOMC \u2014 the Federal Open Market Committee \u2014 which will meet to decide on interest rates going forward.<\/p>\n If history is a guide, the Sep. 20 decision will induce at least some form of volatility across risk assets, with Bitcoin and crypto no exception. <\/p>\n The landscape surrounding the latest FOMC meeting is mixed \u2014 last week\u2019s macro data shows inflation beating expectations<\/a>, yet markets overwhelmingly believe that the Fed will not raise rates further to combat it.<\/p>\n According to CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool<\/a>, the odds of rates remaining the same are almost unanimous.<\/p>\n This could reduce the impact of the FOMC event \u2014 but conversely, a curveball decision which goes against market appraisals would be felt all the more keenly.<\/p>\n \u201cThis week sets up the rest of 2023,\u201d financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized while highlighting upcoming macro data releases and more.<\/p>\n \u201cFed guidance on Wednesday sets the tone for the next few meetings. Expect to see lots of volatility this week.\u201d<\/p>\n Key Events This Week:<\/p>\n 1. Building Permits data – Tuesday<\/p>\n 2. Housing Starts data – Tuesday<\/p>\n 3. Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday<\/p>\n 4. Fed Press Conference – Wednesday<\/p>\n 5. Jobless Claims – Thursday<\/p>\n 6. Existing Home Sales data – Thursday<\/p>\n This week sets up the rest of 2023.<\/p>\n \u2014 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 17, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Explaining the likely outcome of FOMC, crypto and macro insight resource Ecoinometrics suggested that the market odds were no surprise based on Fed signals.<\/p>\n \u201cThere will be no rate hike at the FOMC meeting on September 20. That\u2019s what the Fed Funds futures are pricing,\u201d it wrote<\/a> at the weekend. <\/p>\n \u201cAnd actually they have been very consistent about that for a long time now. The fact that the latest inflation numbers aren\u2019t exactly going in the right direction didn\u2019t change anything to that.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n An accompanying chart added that the market \u201cnever had doubts\u201d about what would happen in September.<\/p>\n Back to Bitcoin and a return to the \u201cup only\u201d style of fundamental growth is set to characterize the coming week.<\/p>\n Mining difficulty, which dipped 2.65% at its last automated readjustment two weeks ago, will cancel out its losses on Sep. 19.<\/p>\n The latest estimates from BTC.com<\/a> suggest that difficulty will increase by a solid 4.6% \u2014 taking it to new all-time highs in the process.<\/p>\n 2023 has seen a broad uptrend in difficulty challenged only briefly, even as spot price action delivered more challenging conditions.<\/p>\n The story is the same for hash rate \u2014 the estimated processing power deployed by miners \u2014 which continues to set new records of its own.<\/p>\n A conspicuous spike into the new week has become a talking point in its own right, with optimism increasing among commentators as a result.<\/p>\n Who is responsible for the hashrate jumping up almost 20%? Who do you think?<\/p>\n This is surreal.#btc<\/a> #Bitcoin<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/paIwb57DNm<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Bitcoin Bootcamp (@BTCbootcamp) September 17, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n \u201cThe bitcoin network hashrate is at an all time high,\u201d Nicholas Cary, co-founder of Bitcoin data resource Blockchain.com, noted<\/a> earlier this month. <\/p>\n \u201cWhat does this mean? The difficulty is a measure of how difficult it is to mine a Bitcoin block, or in more technical terms, to find a hash below a given target. A high difficulty means that it will take more computing power to mine the same number of blocks, making the network more secure against attacks.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Blockchain estimated<\/a> hash rate at 422 exahashes per second (EH\/s) as of Sep. 17, while BTC.com currently puts the figure at 430 EH\/s.<\/p>\n Just as there is no stopping Bitcoin miners, the user base likewise appears to be relentlessly expanding.<\/p>\n The number of new BTC wallets being created is now at its highest since late 2017, the time of Bitcoin\u2019s old all-time high of $20,000, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows.<\/p>\n According to the firm\u2019s address tracking metric, even the later trip to $69,000 failed to spark as big a reaction in new address creation.<\/p>\n Active addresses, however, do mimic mid-2021, returning to those levels for the first time this month.<\/p>\n The data was uploaded<\/a> to X by Andre Dragosch, head of research at crypto investment firm Deutsche Digital Assets. Dragosch quizzed whether BTC price performance would copy the return to form across the Glassnode metrics.<\/p>\n \u201cAll-time high in addresses with 0.01 Bitcoin or less,\u201d James Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, added<\/a> about further Glassnode data. <\/p>\n \u201cFifth or so strongest accumulation from this cohort in the past five years. This asset continues to be cornered by a small cohort.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n While things may be looking up across the Bitcoin ecosystem, the average crypto investor is yet to regain their confidence.<\/p>\n Related:\u00a0Bitcoin price all-time high will precede 2024 halving \u2014 New prediction<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n According to the latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index<\/a>, the mood characterizing crypto continues to be one of \u201cfear.\u201d<\/p>\n The extent of the cold feet is modest \u2014 the Index, which normalizes sentiment on a 0-100 scale, is now just below its \u201cneutral\u201d 50 mark.<\/p>\n Fear has nonetheless dominated since mid-August, with price triggers a key influencer.<\/p>\n Analzying net unrealized profit and loss data among the BTC supply, meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Titan of Crypto revealed what he called a \u201cstriking correlation\u201d between this year\u2019s environment and that seen in the run-up to previous Bitcoin bull runs.<\/p>\n \u201cI think we might witness a similar price action as Bitcoin had in the first 2 cycles,\u201d part of his commentary forecast.<\/p>\n #Bitcoin<\/a> Net Unrealized Profit \/ Loss striking correlation<\/p>\n – In 2012, 2016 as NUPL was contracting between Optimism \/ Anxiety and Hope \/ Fear areas BTC price was consolidating before resuming its run up. Trader eyes BTC price \u201clocal bottom\u201d<\/h2>\n
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FOMC volatility due with rate pause odds at 99%<\/h2>\n
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Difficulty, hash rate return to new records<\/h2>\n
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Bitcoin address numbers reach multi-year highs<\/h2>\n
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Crypto fear is never far away<\/h2>\n
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– In 2019 as NUPL was shooting up Bitcoin price was rallying without a\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/110OMhdGcW<\/a><\/p>\n