<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve seen some garbage opinions out there recently about Kevin McCarthy\u2019s expulsion from office as speaker of the US House of Representatives and how this might be a good thing for crypto.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Much, I think, is being made of nothing.\u00a0<\/p>\n
First, there\u2019s the erroneous notion that the ascent of Patrick McHenry (R-NC) as speaker pro tempore<\/em> is somehow a boon because of McHenry\u2019s \u201ccrypto-friendly\u201d posture.\u00a0<\/p>\n To be clear: McHenry\u2019s sole function is to conduct the election for the next speaker of the house. That\u2019s it. He\u2019s basically there to hold out the hat as people drop their votes in \u2014 nothing to do with crypto.\u00a0<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the truth as I see it. No political game of musical chairs is going to fundamentally revise the prevailing regulatory narrative around crypto. Certainly not the exit of a politician known better for his fundraising acumen rather than his ability to wield real power.\u00a0<\/p>\n As far as I can tell, McHenry isn\u2019t joining the race<\/a> for the full promotion. That\u2019s likely because two other House heavyweights \u2014 Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Jim Jordan (R-OH) \u2014 have absorbed just about all the available competitive oxygen.\u00a0<\/p>\n Maybe something crazy happens, Scalise and Jordan go down in flames, and McHenry steps up to fill the void. But I just don\u2019t see it happening.\u00a0<\/p>\n Tom Emmer (R-MN) was the other House Republican raised as a preferred replacement in the wake of McCarthy\u2019s exile. Indeed, Emmer was floated via a far-right whisper campaign picked up by the Washington Post in a Sept. 28 report.\u00a0<\/p>\n But this never made much sense to begin with. Emmer supported McCarthy, voted to keep him in office, and, oh, he\u2019s already backing Scalise. So much for that.<\/p>\n Barring any unforeseen madness \u2014 and yeah, there\u2019s no shortage of that<\/em> in Congress these days \u2014 either Scalise or Jordan will be the next speaker of the House. I think the race will go to Jordan, thanks in part to a Friday endorsement<\/a> by former US president and current courtroom resident Donald Trump. Jordan\u2019s deep connection to the agenda-setting right wing of the GOP and grenade-throwing tendencies, however accurate or inaccurate, makes him an ideal candidate in today\u2019s political moment.\u00a0<\/p>\n Jordan, it bears mentioning, hasn\u2019t taken any kind of crypto position.\u00a0<\/p>\n So, where does McCarthy\u2019s expulsion leave crypto more broadly? Some crypto commentators will continue to grasp for straws in an attempt to frame events around some kind of positive or negative narrative for the industry. More importantly, things will carry on as they have: shaped by the failure of FTX and the ever-growing legal and regulatory pressures surrounding Binance.\u00a0<\/p>\n The McCarthy-exit-will-help-us mentality has less to do with tangible reality and more to do with the tendency among some in the crypto \u201cspace\u201d to project their desires, biases and theses on the aforementioned reality. Crypto advocates want Congress to help them out of their economic and perceptual dilemmas, so any major change \u2014 and yes, McCarthy\u2019s defeat is<\/em> a big deal \u2014 will be perceived as some kind of opportunity or moment of deliverance.\u00a0<\/p>\n Read more from our op-ed section: <\/strong>Need an edge in the 2024 presidential election? Look to crypto.<\/a><\/p>\n Despite how the business community and lobby apparatus might otherwise feel, crypto is\u2026really small. Congress faces a feast of problems, like paying for the government to run, so addressing things like the tax status of cryptocurrency is, well, probably not super-high on the agenda.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n But I digress. Looking ahead, I predict that the basic calculus will stay the same.\u00a0<\/p>\n Cannibalism and Trump-worship will remain the preferred Republican political strategies. Democrats will keep fundraising. The Senate will creak along, as will President Joe Biden. There\u2019s a decent chance the government shuts down this fall, though a proposed bill to effectively end the risk of government funding cliffs might curtail that possibility.\u00a0<\/p>\n Okay, sure, those are some pretty low-risk predictions. But what about crypto policy?\u00a0<\/p>\n I think policy changes will inch along, as they have, as part of the broader appropriations process. This is a strategy advanced by lawmakers like Darren Soto (D-FL), given that the essential bipartisan fashion of these processes (well, normally) is conducive for finding common ground on thorny issues.\u00a0<\/p>\n Policymaking efforts \u2014 like those focused on stablecoins, exchange rules, etc. \u2014 will succeed not through media-savvy political wars but the slow, collaborative processes that reflect the way Congress should<\/em> operate. Maybe the industry will like the outcomes. Maybe they won\u2019t. They\u2019re certainly out there trying<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n But Kevin McCarthy\u2019s tortuous downfall changes absolutely nothing.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n