A closely followed crypto strategist is weighing in on the likelihood of a significant downside move for Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) as the king crypto remains above $28,000.<\/p>\n Pseudonymous analyst Credible Crypto tells<\/a> his 346,700 followers on the social media platform X that it seems unlikely that BTC would dip to $20,000 based on the current amount of open interest (OI), the total number of active derivative contracts held by traders.<\/p>\n \u201cSo why is seeing $20,000 or below on BTC here so improbable? <\/em><\/p>\n If we take the below chart and look at the data we have we can see that aggregate OI at around $6 billion has proved to be a historical bottom (which has been steady for the last 12-plus months (marked by peak fear\/panic at FTX collapse bottom) and around $11 billion has been a local top. <\/em><\/p>\n Our last major flush that we had in August wiped out nearly $3 billion in OI (from $11 billion down to under $8 billion) but still failed to break our last major low at $24,800. We now trade at nearly the same price as when that flush triggered, however, aggregate OI is now down from nearly $11 billion at the time of our flush in August to only $8.5 billion at this time. <\/em><\/p>\n Meaning we are now in the same spot we were before the flush to $25,000 but there are now about 50% less liquidation-prone levered positions in the system versus what there was in August.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n He also says that it is unlikely BTC would dip below $24,800 for similar reasons.<\/p>\n \u201cEven betting on a break of $24,800 is betting against the odds as you would be looking for a move down of greater magnitude than the flush in August with half as much ammo (liquidation susceptible leveraged positions) available to cause that flush.\u201d <\/em><\/p>\n BTC is worth $28,698 at time of writing.<\/p>\n Don’t Miss a Beat \u2013 Subscribe<\/a> to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox <\/span><\/em>
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