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\n Share:<\/span><\/p>\n The high-impact Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data from the United States<\/a> (US) will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday at 13:30 GMT.<\/p>\n The US labor market report is expected to show that the economy created 170,000 jobs in the last month of 2023, down from a job addition of 199,000 in November. The Unemployment Rate is seen ticking up to 3.8%. A closely-watched measure of wage inflation, Average Hourly Earnings, is forecast<\/a> to retreat to 3.9% in the year through December, a tad down from the 4% increase registered in November.<\/p>\n The US labor market data is crucial to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate outlook for 2024, and thus it could have a significant impact on the US Dollar (USD) valuation.<\/p>\n Amidst cooling inflation in the US, markets price in that the Fed is done with its tightening cycle, expecting interest rate cuts as early as March. The probability for a March Fed rate cut currently stands about 65%, according to CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool.<\/p>\n Fed rate cut bets rose substantially after the Fed\u2019s revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed in December that policymakers forecasted a total of 75 basis points reduction in the policy rate. Moreover, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell<\/a> acknowledged that officials have started to talk about when it will be appropriate to cut the policy rate. Powell further added that they are very focused on \u201cnot making the mistake of keeping rates<\/a> too high too long.\u201d Regarding the labor market conditions, \u201cjob gains have moderated but remain strong and the unemployment rate remains low,” the Fed said in the policy statement.<\/p>\n On a hawkish note, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester both argued in late December that the markets have gotten ahead of themselves on likely interest rate cuts. These comments, however, did little to nothing to alter the expectations of a March rate reduction.<\/p>\n Previewing December jobs report, TD Securities analysts said that they expect a steady 150,000\u2013200,000 growth in Nonfarm Payrolls for the third straight month and added:<\/p>\n \u201cWe anticipate continued weakness in the information\/tech and finance sectors, while government jobs likely stayed perky. We also look for the Unemployment Rate to rebound by a tenth after unexpectedly dropping to 3.7% in Nov. Wage growth likely printed 0.3% m\/m.\u201d<\/p>\n Meanwhile, private sector employment in the US rose by 164,000 in December and annual pay was up 5.4%, data published by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed on Thursday.<\/p>\n The Nonfarm Payrolls<\/a>, a significant indicator of the US labor market, will be published at 13:30 GMT. EUR\/USD<\/a> gained more than 1% in December and touched its highest level since July at 1.1140 before staging a technical correction to begin 2024. The US employment data could trigger a big reaction and help investors determine the next directional bias for the main currency pair.<\/p>\n An encouraging NFP headline print, between 200,000 and 250,000, combined with an elevated wage inflation reading could prompt investors to reassess Fed rate cut bets, adding legs to the ongoing US Dollar recovery while weighing on EUR\/USD. Conversely, the USD could come under renewed selling pressure should the data disappoint and affirm dovish Fed prospects. Given the market positioning, however, a USD sell-off on a weak NFP figure could remain short-lived.<\/p>\n Eren Sengezer, Analyst at FXStreet<\/a>, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR\/USD:\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cEUR\/USD faces immediate support at 1.0930-1.0920, where the Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the latest uptrend and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) are located. In case the pair starts using that area as resistance, technical sellers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.0880 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.0830 (static level) could be set as the next bearish targets.<\/p>\n On the upside, 1.0970-1.0980 (100-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) aligns as immediate resistance ahead of 1.1020-1.1030 (20-day SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.1120 (end-point of the latest uptrend).\u201d <\/p>\n The U6 or underemployment rate, includes \u2013 in addition to the Unemployment Rate \u2013 anyone who wants to work but has given up looking for employment in the last year, as well as people working part-time who would like to work full-time. It is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/a> (BLS) and is considered a wider and more realistic labor market metric by many economists. Usually, a higher rate is seen in recessionary economies, while a lower rate is a symptom of growing economies. Generally, a decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. The number isn\u2019t usually market moving, as it depends on the Nonfarm Payrolls result and other data in the BLS report.<\/p>\n Read more.<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n Next release:<\/strong> 01\/05\/2024 13:30:00 GMT<\/span><\/p>\n Frequency:<\/strong> Monthly<\/span><\/p>\n Source: <\/strong>US Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/span> <\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n\n
What to expect in the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?<\/h2>\n
How will US November Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR\/USD?<\/h2>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\nEconomic Indicator<\/h2>\n
United States U6 Underemployment Rate<\/h3>\n