{"id":234598,"date":"2024-01-23T22:10:22","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T16:40:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/?p=234598"},"modified":"2024-01-23T22:10:22","modified_gmt":"2024-01-23T16:40:22","slug":"forecasts-from-four-major-banks-inflation-likely-to-take-a-step-downwards-crypto-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/forecasts-from-four-major-banks-inflation-likely-to-take-a-step-downwards-crypto-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasts from four major banks, inflation likely to take a step downwards – Crypto News"},"content":{"rendered":"

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New Zealand\u2019s Consumer Price Index<\/a> (CPI) report for the fourth quarter (Q4) will be released on Tuesday, January 23 at 21:45 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of four major banks regarding the upcoming NZ inflation data.<\/p>\n

Headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter vs. 1.8% in Q3, while the year-on-year rate is expected at 4.7% vs. the prior release of 5.6%. If so, it would be the lowest since Q2 2021. The RBNZ\u2019s Q4 CPI projection is higher at 0.8% QoQ and 5.0% YoY.<\/p>\n

ANZ<\/h2>\n
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We expect annual CPI inflation to decelerate sharply to 4.7% YoY in Q4, below the RBNZ\u2019s November MPS forecast of 5.0% YoY. However, the expected downward surprise versus RBNZ\u2019s November forecast is driven entirely by the tradables component, which we expect to fall from 4.7% to 3.4% YoY. We expect non-tradable inflation of 5.7% YoY, in line with the RBNZ\u2019s November forecast. Given the RBNZ\u2019s focus on this component, it\u2019s surprises here that will matter for the OCR outlook, particularly in context of the RBNZ\u2019s impatience as expressed in the November Monetary Policy Statement. We see the risks as balanced around 5.7%. We expect the suite of core inflation measures to move materially lower. This is absolutely what the RBNZ needs to see, but we are cognisant that these measures are also influenced by weaker tradable inflation, whereas the RBNZ\u2019s primary focus is domestic inflation risks.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Westpac<\/h2>\n
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Inflation is set to again fall short of the RBNZ\u2019s forecasts. We expect consumer prices to have risen by 0.5% in the December quarter, leaving them up 4.7% over the past 12 months. In contrast, the RBNZ\u2019s last published forecasts assumed a 0.8% rise over the quarter (+5.0% for the year to December). Our lower inflation forecast reflects softness in the prices for volatile items like international airfares and food over the past quarter, as signalled by Stats NZ\u2019s expanded suite of monthly price indicators. The bigger question is what\u2019s happening to the underlying trend in prices. We expect most core inflation measures \u2013 including measures of domestic price pressures \u2013 will moderate, but remain at levels well above the RBNZ\u2019s target range.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

TDS<\/h2>\n
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We expect Q4 CPI inflation to print on consensus at 0.5% QoQ (RBNZ: 0.8%), decelerating sharply from the 1.8% QoQ in Q3. This lifts the annual headline to 4.7% YoY, also much lower than 5.6% YoY last quarter. Food prices are likely to be a big drag this quarter, down 1.1% QoQ while petrol prices continue to be on the retreat. However, rent prices appear more sticky and could be a concern to the RBNZ, especially after it flagged that strong population growth poses upside risk to inflation. If CPI inflation does print below RBNZ’s forecast, the RBNZ may scale back its hawkish rhetoric at the Feb meeting given the disappointing economic data (e.g., GDP, labour market) in Q4.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

ING<\/h2>\n
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We recently updated our estimates for the fourth quarter CPI in New Zealand, and expect a 0.4% QoQ print which translates into 4.6% YoY. Consensus is centred at 4.7%, signalling that expectations are for a marked undershot compared to the latest RBNZ fourth quarter CPI projections at 5.0%.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Share: New Zealand\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for the fourth quarter (Q4) will be released on Tuesday, January 23 at 21:45 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of four major banks regarding the upcoming NZ inflation data. Headline CPI is expected […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":234599,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[173],"tags":[299,201,248,251,246,842,257,255,250,3528,715,252,247,253,714,249,256,254],"class_list":["post-234598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-others","tag-banks","tag-blockchain","tag-bsc","tag-chainlink","tag-coin","tag-cpi","tag-cryptocurrency","tag-gta","tag-looks-rare","tag-newzealand","tag-nzdusd","tag-oracle","tag-polygon","tag-quickswap","tag-rbnz","tag-safe-moon","tag-wallet","tag-wordpress"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=234598"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234598\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":234600,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234598\/revisions\/234600"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/234599"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=234598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}