\n Share:<\/span><\/p>\n The Swiss Franc (CHF) is edging lower against\u00a0the US Dollar (USD) on Monday,\u00a0after\u00a0a strong start when it capitalised on its safe-haven status. Global equity markets, a key barometer of risk appetite, are falling on uncertainty over the economic outlook, news of another China property bailout and over-valuation concerns. Most European equities are down by over half a percentage point and US indices\u00a0are also\u00a0in the red as Wall Street gets underway.\u00a0<\/p>\n Swiss Franc is likely to depreciate in the near term, according to analysts<\/a> at HSBC, who see the Swiss National Bank\u2019s (SNB) reluctance to implement policies to strengthen the Franc as well as an environment of overall uptrending equity markets as key headwinds.\u00a0<\/p>\n In an interview with Bloomberg in February, SNB<\/a> Chairman Thomas Jordan said the Swiss Franc might now be too strong. The CHF, he said, had been rising in nominal terms for several years, and that this had been \u201chelpful\u201d as it had \u201cshielded us from inflationary pressures from abroad.\u201d Jordan added, however, that at the end of 2023 the Franc had started to rise in real terms, and that this could be a problem for Swiss businesses.\u00a0<\/p>\n Recent lower-than-expected core inflation data in Switzerland, which fell to 1.1% in February \u2013 lower than the 1.2% previous \u2013 further suggests the SNB will not need to raise interest rates. The next key event for the USD\/CHF<\/a> is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Consumer Price Index ex Food and Energy is forecast to moderate to 3.7% YoY \u2013 from 3.9% previously, and 0.3% MoM from 0.4% previously.\u00a0<\/p>\n The headline CPI figure is forecast<\/a> to come in at 3.1% YoY, unchanged from the previous month, and at 0.4% MoM from 0.3% in the previous month.\u00a0<\/p>\n The result of the CPI data will be key in factoring into when the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to start cutting interest rates. A lower-than-expected result could lead to earlier rate cuts from the Fed, which would have a negative impact on USD as it reduces foreign capital inflows.\u00a0<\/p>\n According to the CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates a market-based expectation of when the Fed will begin reducing its Fed<\/a> Funds Rate, the probability of a first cut in March is 4%, in May 31.5%, and the chances of a cut by June are 73.8%.<\/p>\n The USD\/CHF \u2013 the number of Swiss Francs one US Dollar<\/a> can buy \u2013 is bumping up against several key technical levels on the charts which could point to the start of a reversal back down in line with the long-term downtrend.<\/p>\n The weekly chart<\/a> shows the price currently butting up against the falling trendline of a descending channel, as well as the key 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). It is possible this could mark the inflection point of a reversal where the pair starts moving down again within the falling channel.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n
Swiss Franc vulnerable, HSBC says<\/h2>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\nOn the Horizon<\/h2>\n
Technical Analysis: Swiss Franc vs US Dollar turns lower after touching\u00a0key resistance level<\/h2>\n
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