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This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <\/em>subscribe<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n Bitcoin\u2019s price dipped below six figures for the first time in a week. Sounds like a good chance to check in.<\/p>\n Hours after dropping below $98,000, BTC rebounded to ~$102,000 Monday morning. The asset was trading around $99,400 at 2 pm ET.<\/p>\n Price fluctuates, we know. But identifying the factors at play can go a long way in helping new and recurring investors gain a better understanding of this growing asset class.<\/p>\n Ledn CIO John Glover acknowledged on Friday that President Donald Trump\u2019s executive order<\/a> was enough to keep BTC from selling off last week after achieving an all-time high near $109,000. But he argued there are plenty of market participants looking to take profit \u2014 or swap their BTC for other assets that\u2019ve underperformed since Trump\u2019s election win.\u00a0<\/p>\n Another factor to consider is the strong correlation between bitcoin and equities, which Bitfinex analysts wrote \u201cremains one of the most reliable market dynamics.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n They explained the 30-day rolling Pearson correlation between BTC, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reached 0.7 \u2014 \u201chighlighting a trend that isn\u02bct just coincidental but indicative of how bitcoin is increasingly treated like a risk-on major asset class.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Thus, the Bitfinex analysts note, BTC \u201creacted with caution\u201d after last week\u2019s Bank of Japan rate hike and sharply fell due to \u201cjitters\u201d stemming from China\u02bcs ability to produce cheaper AI models<\/a> through startup DeepSeek.<\/p>\n Bitcoin options implied volatility declined 13% over the course of last week, they added, \u201csuggesting traders are not expecting to see elevated price action.\u201d<\/p>\n Still, you\u2019ve read here about the bullish signals. The latest crypto executive order and the end of SAB 121<\/a>, sure \u2014 but also ongoing institutional investment into bitcoin ETFs, companies buying BTC, etc.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n On those two points, the US spot BTC products nearly reached the $40 billion net inflow milestone last week after just over one year on the market<\/a>.<\/p>\n MicroStrategy continues its big bitcoin purchases (scroll a bit for more on that) and more companies (like Critical Metals Corp., with a plan<\/a> to buy $500 million of BTC) mull, and execute, similar acquisitions. \u00a0<\/p>\n Blockworks\u2019 David Canellis pointed out<\/a> that today marks day 799 of a bull market that \u2014 if history repeats \u2014 could last about 1,000 days.<\/p>\n While corrections are normal<\/a> within bull markets, Two Prime Digital Assets has observed more sophisticated market participants pulling volatility out of the market through long-term investing behavior and derivatives strategies \u2014 going as far to coin a term: \u201cThe Silent Put.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIn short, a new cadre of bidders, including governments and corporate balance sheets, are willing to buy the dip without getting shaken out,\u201d the firm wrote on X.<\/p>\n Glover said in a Friday statement he\u2019s still looking for BTC to trade towards $126,000 over the next two months. That could be a near-term top as \u201cthose looking to lock in profits battling with those bulls that are late to the party,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n When I followed up with Glover Monday after the latest correction, he said his thoughts haven\u2019t changed.<\/p>\n He told me he\u2019s expecting \u201clots of directionless volatility\u201d as we hear from various levels of government (and the central bank) as to how immediate (or not) Trump\u2019s promises may be implemented.<\/p>\n Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter<\/a> \u2014 market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.<\/strong><\/p>\n
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