This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <\/em>subscribe<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n BlackRock\u2019s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had more than $60 billion in assets under management on Thursday.\u00a0<\/p>\n The trust eclipsed $40 billion in net inflows that day \u2014 after less than 13 months on the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n You may recall the product\u2019s 71-day net inflow streak<\/a> out of the gate. And that IBIT attracted 21% of BlackRock\u2019s Q1 2024 flows<\/a>. The ETF\u2019s ~$34 billion of positive net flows in 2024 made up about 5% of BlackRock\u2019s $641 billion total over that span.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The $60 billion AUM figure puts IBIT at No. 31 on VettaFi\u2019s list of the largest ETFs (albeit with a slightly different total).\u00a0<\/p>\n The five ETFs just ahead of it (Nos. 26-30) have been on the market for an average of ~19 years \u2014 putting in perspective how fast this product is climbing the charts.<\/p>\n Another stat: IBIT is the 11th-largest iShares ETF out of more than 400. The biggest is the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), with roughly $600 billion AUM. That\u2019s good for third on VettaFi\u2019s list \u2014 behind only SPY and VOO, which also offer S&P 500 exposure.<\/p>\n So IBIT remains about 10 times smaller than the world\u2019s three largest ETFs. How high on the list could it get? And in what time frame?<\/p>\n Bitwise research head Ryan Rasmussen wanted to avoid naming specific bitcoin ETFs. But he told me he wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see one such product surpass the largest gold ETF \u2014 State Street\u2019s SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), with ~$76 billion AUM \u2014 within the next year or two.\u00a0<\/p>\n IBIT eclipsing GLD would likely put it in the top 20.<\/p>\n But a bitcoin ETF climbing above the biggest broad-based equities ETFs is a much taller task. Those are \u201ca staple\u201d in a majority of portfolios (often commanding an allocation of 20-50%), Rasmussen noted. If included, a bitcoin ETF allocation is typically 1-5%.<\/p>\n \u201cIt would take a significant increase in bitcoin\u2019s price, increased investor adoption<\/a>, and upsizing typical bitcoin allocations for a single bitcoin ETF to penetrate the top five or 10 ETFs by AUM,\u201d he said. \u201cAll three of those things are possible, but that would be many years down the road.\u201d<\/p>\n Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter<\/a> \u2014 market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.<\/strong><\/p>\n
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