This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions,\u00a0<\/em>subscribe<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n Today marks day 799 of the bitcoin bull market.\u00a0<\/p>\n That\u2019s about 26 and a half months of positive price action. A little more than two years. Cheers to that!<\/p>\n It\u2019s tough to say exactly when bull markets start and end in crypto. Old-world definitions<\/a> \u2014 based on 20% retracements from local highs and so on \u2014 have no power here.\u00a0<\/p>\n Drawdowns of that size just happen way too often<\/a> on the way up. Still, by my very rough estimates, the past three bitcoin bull markets going back to 2011 have lasted, on average, somewhere in the region of 1,000 days.<\/p>\n So, usually it goes that it takes less than three years for bitcoin to go from the bottom of the previous bear market, through to cycle peaks, down to a crash that in retrospect clearly put an end to any upward trajectory.<\/p>\n The good news: <\/strong>Bitcoin is looking super healthy this cycle when mapped to the previous three. Even after this correction.<\/p>\n Bitcoin\u2019s performance during this bull market \u2014 which started at the end of 2022 \u2014 to date is shown on the chart above in log view. It\u2019s done 6.6x so far, going from $15,474 to $99,000 as of this morning.<\/p>\n Notice how, for most of the cycle, BTC has tracked ahead or just below the brown line, which plots its performance during the prior bull cycle between 2018 and 2022.<\/p>\n BTC diverged below around 50 days ago, at the start of December. But that\u2019s okay: We already know bitcoin returns are diminishing every cycle<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Its current trajectory better fits the pattern \u2014 all bull market cycles have followed a similar trajectory, it\u2019s just less pronounced each time.<\/p>\n The bad news: <\/strong>We are no closer to a bonafide altcoin season, even after big rallies in coins such as XRP and TRUMP.<\/p>\n This one charts the market cap growth of bitcoin (in orange) and the altcoin market (purple) for this bull market. As you can see, altcoins are suffering deeper losses but have still done 4.4x.<\/p>\n The blue columns in the back show the relative performance of bitcoin to altcoins \u2014 bitcoin is now more than 210% ahead of altcoins, the largest distance of the cycle. That\u2019s too much for any real altcoin season<\/a>.<\/p>\n Like bull and bear markets, \u201caltcoin season\u201d has no formal definition. It\u2019s more of a vibe.\u00a0<\/p>\n Empire <\/em>has done its best to quantify it<\/a>: Altcoin seasons potentially begin when the market cap growth of the altcoin market, over the bull market to date, exceeds that of bitcoin\u2019s.<\/p>\n An altcoin season is only confirmed when altcoins have outpaced bitcoin for 90 consecutive days or more.\u00a0<\/p>\n Ninety days sounds like a lot, but backtesting with those conditions provides three distinct altcoin seasons throughout crypto\u2019s history:\u00a0<\/p>\n Perhaps the next altcoin season will look a lot different. For now, it\u2019s still all about bitcoin.<\/p>\n Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter<\/a> \u2014 market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.<\/strong><\/p>\n
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