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(Bloomberg Opinion) — You know, it could just be a coincidence. On the eve of Apple Inc.\u2019s World Wide Developers\u2019 Conference, a new paper from the company\u2019s own researchers poured some cold water over some of the artificial-intelligence hype.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
The study argues that the advanced reasoning models, heralded by some as a new frontier for how AI \u201cthinks,\u201d fall well short of expectations. When a problem becomes sufficiently complex, the team of six\u00a0researchers wrote, the models suffered a \u201ccomplete accuracy collapse.\u201d It examined top efforts from OpenAI, Google and and Anthropic \u2014 three AI makers considered several furlongs ahead of Apple in the AI race.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
As I say \u2014 perhaps it\u2019s just a coincidence. And the debate around the paper\u2019s conclusions are only just starting. But it\u2019s certainly useful that it arrived just as the iPhone maker\u2019s perceived failing to build competitive AI capabilities comes back into sharp focus as third-party Apple developers descend on San Jose on Monday for the annual pilgrimage,\u00a0with many more joining remotely. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
WWDC isn\u2019t typically the venue for Apple\u2019s biggest product launches. But it is a chance for Apple to get developers hyped on some experimental ideas. The Vision Pro mixed-reality headset was unveiled\u00a0at WWDC in 2023, and last year\u2019s event was about the long-awaited reveal\u00a0of Apple\u2019s answer to ChatGPT and the rest: Apple Intelligence.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
The tone of this year\u2019s WWDC will be markedly different for one obvious reason:\u00a0Apple has embarrassed itself.\u00a0Many of the Apple Intelligence upgrades the company outlined in 2024 have yet to materialize on users\u2019 devices, with the company forced to quietly stop running ads that suggested the features were imminent. The bells and whistles\u00a0that did get released were underwhelming, buggy or both. Backed into a corner, by Wall Street or just competitive instincts against its peers, Apple looked to be in a bit of a scramble.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
But it\u2019s yesterday\u2019s news to say that Apple is behind on AI. Investors know that, and the\u00a0shortcomings have already been priced in;\u00a0just one of several factors contributing to Apple\u2019s share price drop of 19% so far this year. (That\u00a0would have made it the worst performer in the Magnificent Seven were it not for the Trump-Musk feud\u2019s fallout on Tesla Inc.\u00a0last week.) <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Today\u2019s story is instead about whether Apple can convincingly talk its way around its glaring deficit. That job will fall on the shoulders of Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook, who could be forgiven for being distracted as Apple contends with the continued unpredictabilities of the continuing trade war. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Instead of any significant AI announcements, according to Bloomberg News\u2019 chief Apple whisperer, Mark Gurman, attendees will be walked through a revised visual language for its apps, an upgrade to its Mac OS operating system, a new games offering\u00a0and a smattering of other tweaks. There could, of course, be a \u201cone more thing\u201d surprise, but it seems highly unlikely. More so than any significant Apple event in recent memory, this year\u2019s WWDC keynote seems set to be a snoozefest,\u00a0a placeholder for more significant progress to come next year. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Apple\u2019s muted WWDC will stand in\u00a0stark contrast to the buzz created around the recent announcement that ex-Apple design guru Jony Ive was working on a device with OpenAI. That will take time to materialize, if it ever does. More urgent is the threat from Alphabet Inc.\u2019s Google, Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc., which\u00a0all seem closer to creating the breakthrough AI personal assistant that science fiction has promised us for so long.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
So it serves a useful purpose, then, to put out a research paper diminishing others\u2019 AI progress. Apple doesn\u2019t seem able to speed up, so it might as well take a shot at slowing others down.\u00a0And indeed, we might look back in five or\u00a010 years and concede Apple was entirely correct in its reservations. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Taking that thought a step further, one way to spin the situation to its benefit, as discussed by analysts at Evercore ISI recently, might be for Apple executives to make more of the fact that while Apple hasn\u2019t produced any groundbreaking AI achievements compared with its peers, it hasn\u2019t thrown tens of billions of dollars at the pursuit either.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n