{"id":397403,"date":"2025-07-05T13:53:20","date_gmt":"2025-07-05T08:23:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/many-companies-copying-michael-saylors-btc-playbook-risk-death-spiral-report-crypto-news\/"},"modified":"2025-07-05T15:05:02","modified_gmt":"2025-07-05T09:35:02","slug":"many-companies-copying-michael-saylors-btc-playbook-risk-death-spiral-report-crypto-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/many-companies-copying-michael-saylors-btc-playbook-risk-death-spiral-report-crypto-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Many Companies Copying Michael Saylor\u2019s BTC Playbook Risk \u2018Death Spiral\u2019: Report – Crypto News"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

VC firm Breed predicts that companies emulating Strategy\u2019s Bitcoin treasury will run into danger during the next bear market.<\/p>\n

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Many Bitcoin treasury companies will inevitably fail, bringing the threat of systemic risk when they do, according to venture capital firm Breed.<\/p>\n

Particularly vulnerable are firms with market values near the value of the BTC they hold, Breed said in a new report<\/a> titled \u201cThe $Strategy Strategy Proliferation.\u201d<\/p>\n

In it, Breed argues that there are two types of Bitcoin treasury<\/a> companies: those that add BTC as an investment separate from their main business operations, and pure-play<\/a> Bitcoin treasury firms. <\/p>\n

\u201cCompanies that simply add BTC to their balance sheets while continuing to focus on their core businesses will primarily be valued based on those core operations,\u201d Breed said. It is the latter group that will see failures, Breed predicted. <\/p>\n

These pure-play Bitcoin treasury firms live and die by a metric called multiple of net asset value, or MNAV, it said. This is the value the stock market assigns to the company, exceeding that of its BTC holdings. <\/p>\n

Bitcoin Company MNAVs<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

With 597,325 BTC worth about $64 billion in its treasury and a market capitalization of $107 billion, Michael Saylor\u2019s<\/a> Strategy has an MNAV of about 1.7x. <\/p>\n

Companies that copy it raise funds in two basic ways: by issuing debt or issuing stock<\/a>. Debt is the dangerous component, Breed warns, outlining a seven-stage scenario of Bitcoin treasury failure.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe existential threat is an extended bear market that erodes the MNAV premium just as sizable debt maturities come due,\u201d Breed said.<\/p>\n

\"Illustrative
Illustrative Death Spiral<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In this scenario, a crypto bear market wipes out a firm\u2019s MNAV, making it hard to refinance debt. If a large debt maturity comes due, the firm will be forced to liquidate its BTC at a loss, possibly causing the price of Bitcoin to drop further. Then the cycle repeats in a death spiral.<\/p>\n

\u201cNew treasury companies face this risk even more acutely. Without Strategy\u2019s scale, reputation, and passive index inflows, they will likely raise capital on tougher terms and at higher leverage ratios,\u201d Breed noted. \u201cIn a downturn, those aggressive structures could accelerate margin calls and distressed BTC sales, amplifying downside pressure across the market.\u201d <\/p>\n

As more companies adopt Saylor\u2019s playbook, the risk of failure grows. When that happens, stronger firms like Strategy will likely acquire the distressed assets at bargain prices, Breed predicts. <\/p>\n

\u201cUltimately, only a select few companies will sustain a lasting MNAV premium,\u201d the report concludes. \u201cThey will earn it through strong leadership, disciplined execution, savvy marketing, and distinctive strategies that continue to grow Bitcoin-per-share regardless of broader market fluctuations.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

VC firm Breed predicts that companies emulating Strategy\u2019s Bitcoin treasury will run into danger during the next bear market. Many Bitcoin treasury companies will inevitably fail, bringing the threat of systemic risk when they do, according to venture capital firm Breed. Particularly vulnerable are firms with market values near the value of the BTC they […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":397412,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[274,273,272,244,266,271,268,270,269,267],"class_list":["post-397403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-de-fi","tag-crypto-finance","tag-decentralized-finance","tag-liquidity","tag-metamask","tag-pancake","tag-slippage","tag-sushiswap","tag-tronlink","tag-trust-wallet","tag-uniswap"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=397403"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397403\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":397418,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397403\/revisions\/397418"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/397412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=397403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=397403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=397403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}