<\/p>\n
Analysts from Bitwise and CryptoQuant separately argue that growing institutional investment is reshaping the market.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC<\/a>) widely referenced four-year cycle \u2014 the idea that its price predictably rises after each halving<\/a>, before crashing and recovering \u2014 might be losing relevance, according to separate analyses from CryptoQuant and Bitwise executives.<\/p>\n In an X post<\/a> today, July 25, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared that the \u201cBitcoin cycle theory is dead.\u201d Ju argued that in previous market cycles, large holders typically offloaded their Bitcoin to retail investors near price peaks. This time, however, those whales are selling into stronger hands.<\/p>\n \u201cThis time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought. Trading feels pointless. Holders now outnumber traders,\u201d Ju said in the X post.<\/p>\n The shift, in his view, undermines traditional trading strategies built around cyclical retail behavior. \u201cMy mistake was ignoring this shift in my \u2018bull cycle is over\u2019 call,\u201d Ju admitted. \u201cI sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investment.\u201d<\/p>\n Still, the market hasn\u2019t forgotten Ju\u2019s previous claims. In early April, when Bitcoin was trading around $84,000, he warned<\/a> that the bull run was likely over, pointing to rising Realized Cap \u2014 a metric that tracks actual capital inflows through blockchain data \u2014 even as prices held steady.<\/p>\n He interpreted the divergence as a signal of a bear market. Yet, Bitcoin kept climbing, and by July it had surged past $120,000<\/a>, setting multiple new all-time highs this month.<\/p>\n The CryptoQuant CEO is not alone in questioning the model. Other longtime market watchers have begun expressing similar skepticism about the durability of Bitcoin\u2019s four-year cycle. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise<\/a>, has noted that the forces that have created prior four-year cycles \u201care weaker\u201d now.<\/p>\n The halving\u2019s impact weakens with each iteration, Hougan argued in an X post<\/a> today, while external pressures \u2014 like interest rates and regulatory risk \u2014 have softened.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, bigger long-term forces are taking over, Hougan says. For instance, the steady flow of money into spot ETFs, growing interest from institutional investors, and Wall Street\u2019s slow move into building crypto infrastructure.<\/p>\n \u201cRegulatory progress began in earnest in January 2025 and will run for multiple years. Wall Street is just now starting to build on crypto, and will invest billions in the quarters and years to come. This started in earnest with the passage of the Genius Act this month,\u201d Hougan noted.<\/p>\n The result, he suggested, may not be another explosive \u201csuper-cycle,\u201d but rather a \u201csustained steady boom.\u201d<\/p>\n The United States’ stablecoin-focused legislation, dubbed the GENIUS Act, was signed into law<\/a> by President Donald Trump last Friday, after a multi-month \u2014 though relatively speedy \u2014 journey<\/a> through Congress. Other landmark U.S. crypto bills, namely the broader market-structure-focused CLARITY Act<\/a>, have also advanced in Congress, but have yet to pass into law. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Analysts from Bitwise and CryptoQuant separately argue that growing institutional investment is reshaping the market. Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC) widely referenced four-year cycle \u2014 the idea that its price predictably rises after each halving, before crashing and recovering \u2014 might be losing relevance, according to separate analyses from CryptoQuant and Bitwise executives. In an X post today, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":399768,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[274,273,272,244,266,271,268,270,269,267],"class_list":["post-399757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-de-fi","tag-crypto-finance","tag-decentralized-finance","tag-liquidity","tag-metamask","tag-pancake","tag-slippage","tag-sushiswap","tag-tronlink","tag-trust-wallet","tag-uniswap"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/399757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=399757"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/399757\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":399769,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/399757\/revisions\/399769"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/399768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=399757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=399757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=399757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Halving\u2019s Impact<\/h2>\n