{"id":400425,"date":"2025-07-31T20:46:42","date_gmt":"2025-07-31T15:16:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/september-fed-rate-cuts-odds-drop-to-43-will-bitcoins-bull-run-hold-crypto-news\/"},"modified":"2025-07-31T21:01:55","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T15:31:55","slug":"september-fed-rate-cuts-odds-drop-to-43-will-bitcoins-bull-run-hold-crypto-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/september-fed-rate-cuts-odds-drop-to-43-will-bitcoins-bull-run-hold-crypto-news\/","title":{"rendered":"September Fed rate cuts odds drop to 43% &#8211; Will Bitcoin&#8217;s bull run hold?\u00a0 &#8211; Crypto News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div>\n<h2><strong>Key Takeaways<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fed\u2019s rate cuts expectation for September dropped by 20% as traders repriced their previous bullish outlook. Will the high unrealized profit slow the BTC bull run?<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/category\/bitcoin-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin [BTC]<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> briefly dropped to $115.7K following Fed chair Jerome Powell\u2019s hawkish tone after holding interest rates <\/span><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20250730a.htm\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">steady<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on the 30th of July.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the decision was expected, his cautious outlook and a \u2018wait and see\u2019 approach for a September triggered a further risk-off move. Powell cited inflation risk from tariffs and <\/span><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/live\/z0N5_d7Y7Wg?si=11R4YfBN4w1h8SKx&#038;t=367\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">noted<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">,\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cFor the time being, we\u2019re well-positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks before adjusting our policy stance.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The market quickly repriced the September rate cuts expectations following his statement.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Fed rate cuts expectations dip<\/h2>\n<div id=\"attachment_515477\" style=\"width: 1283px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-31-114348.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-515477\" class=\"size-full wp-image-515477\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-31-114348.png\" alt=\"Fed rate cuts \" width=\"1273\" height=\"746\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-31-114348.png 1273w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-31-114348-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-31-114348-1024x600.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-31-114348-768x450.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Screenshot-2025-07-31-114348-1200x703.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1273px) 100vw, 1273px\"\/><\/noscript><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-515477\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CME Fed Watch tool<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Before the July Fed rate decision, the odds of September rate cuts were above 63%. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As of press time, the chance for a 25 bps cut <\/span><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">dropped<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to 43% while another steady rate (4.25%-4.50%) expectation surged to 57%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In most cases, a looser interest rate policy always boosts risk assets like stocks and crypto, Matt Mena, crypto strategist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He added,\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cFor crypto, a Fed pivot could serve as a major tailwind. Looser financial conditions and rate cuts have historically fueled risk assets like Bitcoin, which has long acted as a sponge for excess liquidity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the Fed\u2019s cautious stance could slow the ongoing bull run. But Mena noted that all conditions were set for a likely dovish pivot,\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe setup increasingly resembles Q4 2023 \u2013 softening inflation, rising political volatility, and a Fed constrained by lagging indicators, which saw Bitcoin end the following year at $100K. The stage is set for a policy pivot. The only question is when.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At press time, though, BTC bounced back 2% to $118.5K, but most altcoins didn\u2019t follow suit ahead of inflation data (PCE Index).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_515478\" style=\"width: 1803px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53.png\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-515478\" class=\"size-full wp-image-515478\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Bitcoin\" width=\"1793\" height=\"989\" data-lazy-srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53.png 1793w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53-1024x565.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53-768x424.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53-1536x847.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53-1200x662.png 1200w\" data-lazy-sizes=\"(max-width: 1793px) 100vw, 1793px\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53.png\"\/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-515478\" class=\"size-full wp-image-515478\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin\" width=\"1793\" height=\"989\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53.png 1793w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53-1024x565.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53-768x424.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53-1536x847.png 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTCUSDT_2025-07-31_12-04-53-1200x662.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1793px) 100vw, 1793px\"\/><\/noscript><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-515478\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: BTC\/USDT, TradingView<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Mena, if the $114K-$115K support cracks, then BTC could go lower to $110K.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another risk factor for the market rally was rising BTC profitability. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Glassnode <\/span><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/glassnode\/status\/1950561771032560107\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">highlighted<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0that BTC\u2019s unrealized profit hit a record high of $1.4 trillion, and the relative unrealized profit hit levels that triggered past ATH conditions and sell pressure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_515479\" style=\"width: 2410px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit.jpg\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-515479\" class=\"size-full wp-image-515479\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Fed rate cuts\" width=\"2400\" height=\"1350\" data-lazy-srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit.jpg 2400w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-2048x1152.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" data-lazy-sizes=\"(max-width: 2400px) 100vw, 2400px\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit.jpg\"\/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-515479\" class=\"size-full wp-image-515479\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit.jpg\" alt=\"Fed rate cuts\" width=\"2400\" height=\"1350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit.jpg 2400w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-2048x1152.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/BTC-unrealized-profit-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2400px) 100vw, 2400px\"\/><\/noscript><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-515479\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Glassnode<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But crypto analytics firm Swissblock <\/span><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/swissblock__\/status\/1950686164790468616\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener noreferrer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">held<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that the BTC rally could go higher if QE (quantitative easing) or a surge in dollar liquidity begins.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_515480\" style=\"width: 1610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock.jpg\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-515480\" class=\"size-full wp-image-515480\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns=\" http:=\"\" alt=\"Fed rate cuts\" width=\"1600\" height=\"900\" data-lazy-srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" data-lazy-sizes=\"(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock.jpg\"\/><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-515480\" class=\"size-full wp-image-515480\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock.jpg\" alt=\"Fed rate cuts\" width=\"1600\" height=\"900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock.jpg 1600w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Swissblock-1200x675.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\"\/><\/noscript><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-515480\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Swissblock<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the short term, the <\/span><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/is-bitcoin-ready-to-break-119k-what-this-macro-indicator-tells-us\/\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">macro pressure<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> could cap BTC below $120K and elevate profit-taking. However, any potential Fed pivot in the mid-term could spark a rebound.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-nav\">\n<div class=\"next-blog\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNext: <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/trumps-168-page-crypto-report-promises-the-trading-of-digital-assets-at\/\" rel=\"prev\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Trump\u2019s 168-page crypto report promises \u2018The trading of digital assets at\u2026\u2019<\/a>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways Fed\u2019s rate cuts expectation for September dropped by 20% as traders repriced their previous bullish outlook. Will the high unrealized profit slow the BTC bull run? Bitcoin [BTC] briefly dropped to $115.7K following Fed chair Jerome Powell\u2019s hawkish tone after holding interest rates steady on the 30th of July.\u00a0 While the decision was [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":400429,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[230,225,221,227,226,228,229,60,223,224,222],"class_list":["post-400425","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency","tag-brave","tag-coinbase","tag-crypto","tag-decentralised","tag-decentralized","tag-decentralized-exchange","tag-erc-20","tag-featured","tag-meme-coin","tag-robinhood","tag-solana"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/400425","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=400425"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/400425\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":400431,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/400425\/revisions\/400431"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/400429"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=400425"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=400425"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=400425"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}