Ostium Research\u2019s latest weekly note opened with Bitcoin under pressure after a swift selloff into the new week, describing \u201ca mass liquidation event\u201d that pushed price as low as $111,761, after rejection near resistance in the mid-$117,000s.<\/p>\n
The team frames the drawdown as part of a previously flagged \u201cwindow of weakness\u2026 into early October,\u201d while stressing the higher-timeframe uptrend remains intact unless key weekly levels fail. The report<\/a>, published September 22, 2025, sets out both the technical map and the event calendar that could govern path-dependency over the next several sessions.<\/p>\n On the weekly chart, Ostium notes last week\u2019s consolidation around the August open and a wick into \u201ckey resistance\u2026 at $117.5k,\u201d followed by a close marginally below the open. Early-week price action then carried price beneath reclaimed support into the $111k handle, with the analysts highlighting \u201cover $1.6bn in longs liquidated<\/a> so far today.\u201d<\/p>\n Two structural inflection zones anchor the bearish risk: \u201cAcceptance below $107k on a weekly close would open up more downside into $99k,\u201d whereas on the topside \u201cthe weekly high at $115.3k\u2026 is at least revisited some time later in the week.\u201d<\/p>\n On the daily timeframe, the August open at $115.7k is the pivot the market must reclaim to reassert momentum. As the authors put it, \u201cthat August open at $115.7k [is] a key level to flip into support to resume bullishness.\u201d<\/p>\n The immediate battleground is the prior all-time high at $112k, where \u201ca reclaim of $112k as support\u201d would tilt probabilities toward a higher low and force shorts to cover into a move back through $115.7k. Their base case, however, is for additional chop \u201cbetween $112k-$115k before a second push lower below today\u2019s low,\u201d which will determine whether the market undercuts the June swing at $107k or marks out a bottom sooner.<\/p>\n Tactically, Ostium lays out both long and short triggers with unusual clarity. On the long side: \u201ca sweep of today\u2019s low early this week and then a reclaim of $112k as support,\u201d riding momentum \u201cback into the weekly high.\u201d On the short side, they float what they call \u201ca really nice short setup\u2026 a sharp v-reversal\u2026 back above the weekly high\u2026 before\u2026 rejecting and breaking back below $115.3k,\u201d which would then target \u201c$112k and lower.\u201d In other words, a squeeze-then-fade path that punishes both late longs and late shorts.<\/p>\n Positioning and derivatives breadth round out the near-term blueprint<\/a>. The note shares snapshots of 3-month annualized basis, Bitcoin versus altcoin open interest, and one-week\/one-month liquidation maps, underscoring how quickly liquidity pockets can flip into magnets in thin conditions.<\/p>\n This informs their near-term expectation that \u201cthe next leg lower or second liquidation event this week [could] be a high probability low,\u201d followed by a retest of $115.3k that will act as the tape\u2019s verdict on whether another down-leg or a bear-trap reversal is in play into quarter-end.<\/p>\n The house view remains probabilistic rather than doctrinaire. If $107k fails on a weekly close, the weakness window could extend into \u201c$99k\u201d; if it holds\u2014and especially if the market can \u201cflip $115.7k into support\u201d\u2014the higher-low narrative stays alive. In the authors\u2019 words, for Ethereum<\/a> \u201cnothing about this higher timeframe structure or momentum is currently giga-bearish,\u201d and, by analogy, Bitcoin\u2019s structure is best judged by the reaction around $111.7k\u2013$112k this week.<\/p>\n Whether today\u2019s flush proves to be prelude to capitulation or the trap before new highs, Ostium\u2019s bottom line is clear: \u201cwe move much higher from early October\u201d unless those weekly thresholds are accepted lower.<\/p>\nBitcoin Crash To $99,000 Looms<\/h2>\n
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