- \n
- Fed interest rate decision on December 10 will have a significant impact on the appetite for high-risk assets like BTC\n<\/li>\n
- Some institutions like Strategy have been buying BTC but ETF data signals reducing confidence\n<\/li>\n
- On-chain metrics signal potential undervaluation, which could help trigger a rebound\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
As of this writing, Bitcoin price is floating around $90,500, a bit lower than the $93,500 peak we saw last week. Will it cap off 2025 with a triumphant breach above $100,000, rewarding the faithful, or succumb to pressures and close below $90,000, echoing past winters?<\/p>\n
The Bullish Case<\/h2>\n
If Bitcoin does go above $100,000 by December 31, it will likely be because the Federal Reserve might decide to lower interest rates<\/a> at its December 10-11 meeting. This could send more money into high-risk investments like Bitcoin. ETF inflows could reignite, as BlackRock\u2019s IBIT alone netted $28.76 million on December 8 despite broader outflows of $60 million, per SoSoValue data.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, major institutional investors like MicroStrategy, who added 10,624 BTC last week at an average price of $90,615, are also helping. Data shows that long-term holders have increased their supply by 2% since November, meaning they\u2019re buying more, not selling. Gate.io\u2019s 2025 MVRV study shows that Bitcoin might be undervalued and could go up by 15-20%.<\/p>\n
The Bearish Case<\/h2>\n
The strongest case for a sub-$90,000 close is the current bearish tilt in on-chain indicators. The MVRV (market value over realized value) Z-score, a key valuation metric, has recently flipped into \u201coverheated territory,\u201d while network activity has weakened, and stablecoin buying power has declined. These patterns, according to analyses, resemble the early stages of a downturn rather than a continuation of a rally.<\/p>\n
Current observations show older supply returning to the market with soft demand, which has historically pressured the price downwards. Furthermore, if the Fed delivers a less dovish message than expected, this macro shock could trigger rapid deleveraging in the thinly traded December market, pushing the price towards key support levels below $90,000.<\/p>\n
If spot ETFs continue to lose money, like the $60 million lost yesterday, and if regular investors start to lose confidence, Bitcoin could drop further. Reuters warns of a possible Bitcoin winter<\/a> if this year sees its first annual decline. Glassnode reports that things look tense, similar to early 2022<\/a>, with active addresses dropping 25% in November and profit\/loss ratios going negative, which could mean people are giving up.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin Price Prediction<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Bitcoin\u2019s technical structure is at an inflection point. Following the rejection from the $120,000+ zone, the price has been trading in a corrective phase. The coin could build some near-term upside momentum if it avoids breaking below the 10-day SMA at $90,390. The next significant barrier will be at $94,230, and a strong support at that level could see BTC retest $100,000.<\/p>\n
The main support level is at the psychological $90,000 mark and a break below that level could send Bitcoin price lower to the $84,656-$80,537 support band. <\/p>\n
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