Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) rewards investors the most who hold it for at least three years, according to data<\/a> shared by Andr\u00e9 Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe.<\/p>\n Key takeaways<\/strong>:<\/p>\n Holding BTC for at least three years has historically slashed losses to just 0.70%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Bitcoin price predictions for 2026\u20132027 cluster around $100,000\u2013$150,000 in bullish scenarios.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n A Bitwise analysis reviewed Bitcoin\u2019s price history between July 17, 2010, and Feb. 11, 2026, concluding that the probability of being in the red drops to just 0.70% when BTC is held for at least three years. <\/p>\n In other words, nearly all rolling three-year entry points in Bitcoin\u2019s history ended up profitable. Beyond three years, the risk of loss fell even further: 0.2% over five years and 0% over ten years.<\/p>\n Traders holding Bitcoin for less than three years faced a much higher risk of loss. <\/p>\n Intraday buyers, for instance, had a 47.1% chance of being underwater. That probability stayed elevated at 44.7% over one week, 43.2% over one month, and 24.3% over a one-year holding period.<\/p>\n The realized price metric also shows declines in holders\u2019 losses over multi-year windows. <\/p>\n As of Saturday, Bitcoin was down by roughly 50% from its October 2025 high, trading for around $65,000. <\/p>\n That was way above its three-to-five-year realized price of $34,780, meaning investors who bought and held through that window were still sitting on an approximately 90% profit.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, some traders argue the ongoing Bitcoin price correction could extend toward $30,000<\/a>. <\/p>\n A move to that level would wipe out much of the cohort\u2019s cushion, pushing the three\u2013five year band closer to breakeven. That would further test whether these holders start adding to sell pressure or sit tight.<\/p>\n Conversely, most traders who bought Bitcoin in the past two years were underwater.<\/p>\n The cost basis of the 6m\u201312m cohort, entities that have been holding BTC for up to a year, was around $101,250, leaving them with roughly a 35% in unrealized loss as of Saturday. <\/p>\n However, the 1y\u20132y cohort\u2019s cost basis was lower, around $78,150, translating into about a 15% unrealized loss. <\/p>\n The gap reinforced the same pattern seen in the holding-period data: the longer the holding window, the smaller the drawdown tends to be during corrections.<\/p>\n Longer-term forecasts still cluster around a handful of upside targets for 2026\u20132027.<\/p>\n For instance, global brokerage firm Bernstein maintained its $150,000 BTC price call for 2026<\/a>, pointing to relatively modest net outflows of about 7% from spot Bitcoin ETFs, even as BTC\u2019s price fell by 50%.<\/p>\n \u201cThe current Bitcoin price action is a mere crisis of confidence,\u201d Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said.<\/p>\n Standard Chartered, meanwhile, warned of a potential \u201cfinal capitulation\u201d phase that could drag BTC toward $50,000<\/a> amid weak ETF flows and a tougher macro backdrop<\/a>, before recovering toward $100,000 by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n\n
Long-term Bitcoin holders rarely lose<\/h2>\n
Stronger hands are 90% in profit already<\/h2>\n
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How high can BTC price go?<\/h2>\n
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