The total Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) supply in profit stands at 60.6% on Thursday, continuing to move within a range historically associated with market cycle resets. The metric previously dropped to 50.8% on Feb. 5, its lowest level since January 2, 2023, leaving a large share of holders at breakeven or at a loss.<\/p>\n Similar conditions in the past cycles have preceded strong upside moves. In January 2023, BTC traded at $16,682 when profitability levels were comparable at 51%, before rallying 655% to $126,000 in 2025.<\/p>\n A similar setup occurred in March 2020, when the total supply in profit fell below 50% as BTC traded at $6,500, ahead of a move to $69,000 in 2021.<\/p>\n Over the past five years, the 50\u201360% profitability range has repeatedly<\/a> marked periods where a large portion of holders sat near the BTC cost basis. That compresses unrealized gains across the network and reduces the incentive to sell into weakness.<\/p>\n It is important to note that the metric does not pinpoint a price bottom. It outlines a zone where long-term accumulation has led to high returns while the downside sell pressure has eased.<\/p>\n In past cycles, Bitcoin price bottoms were formed when the long-term holder net unrealized profit\/loss (LTH-NUPL) turned negative, as seen during the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bear markets. This phase marked a period where the long-term investors were holding at a loss.<\/p>\n However, the current LTH-NUPL reading<\/a> is near 0.40, which means that the long-term holders are still comfortably in profit, even as the overall supply profitability has dropped near market cycle lows.<\/p>\n This gap highlights a shift in the market environment. A growing share of Bitcoin supply is now held by corporate entities and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which collectively control close to 15.8% of the circulating supply, i.e., 3,319,677 BTC.<\/p>\n These participants typically operate with a longer holding period and lower sensitivity to short-term price swings.<\/p>\n As a result, the profitability compression across the BTC market does not translate into the same level of forced selling from long-term holders seen in previous cycles in 2015, 2018, and 2022.<\/p>\n This change helps explain why the total supply in profit may revisit historical accumulation zones while the long-term holder profitability stays elevated.<\/p>\n Related:\u00a0Bitcoin in \u2018later stages\u2019 of bear market: Watch these BTC price levels<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n The short-term holder BTC flows to Binance fell to 25,000 BTC on March 25. Crypto analyst Darkfost said<\/a> it is a new market low, down from roughly 100,000 BTC during the early February sell-off. This decline shows a clear reduction in reactive selling from the newer market participants.<\/p>\nBitcoin profitability returns to prior market cycle base levels<\/h2>\n
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BTC exchange flows align with valuation models<\/h2>\n
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