Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in fighting form as $80,000 returns after a three-month absence.<\/p>\n
- \n
- Bitcoin finally taps the $80,000 mark for the first time since late January, as a trader brings $88,000 and higher back into focus.<\/li>\n
- The Bitcoin bear flag construction is in the spotlight, while some still see a new macro breakdown coming.<\/li>\n
- Dissent at the Federal Reserve contrasts with record highs for the S&P 500, but analysis warns that stocks are not safe.<\/li>\n
- Oil is done and the overall supply overhang will drive a comedown, new research says in a potential risk-asset tailwind.<\/li>\n
- Bitcoin\u2019s MVRV ratio metric is now at its highest levels since late January.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
BTC price can hit $88,000 and higher next: Trader<\/h2>\n
It started with a break through a key 21-week trend line<\/span><\/a> last week, and now, Bitcoin is back at $80,000 for the first time in three months<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n
Data from TradingView shows new local highs of $80,617 on Bitstamp.<\/p>\n
The weekly close did not disappoint, becoming Bitcoin\u2019s highest since late January and only its second above the 21-week trend line since October 2025.<\/p>\n
<\/figure>\n BTC\/USD one-week chart with 21EMA. Source: Cointelegraph\/<\/em>TradingView<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n
Correspondingly, market participants are daring to forecast even highs levels next. For crypto trader and analyst Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe, $88,000 is just the start.<\/p>\n
\u201cBitcoin looks primed for upwards momentum,\u201d he wrote in one of his latest posts on X<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cVery keen to see how the markets will react when the US opens, especially given the positive ETF flows of last Friday. Breakout above $79K opens the opportunities all the way towards $86-88K for coming period.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/resizer.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/f=auto,onerror=redirect,w=896,q=90\/https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/HHcFafyWwAAbS_b.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent\")
<\/figure>\nBTC\/USDT one-day chart. Source: Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe\/X<\/em><\/p>\n
Van de Poppe referred to Friday\u2019s $630 million net inflows for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).<\/p>\n
As a result of February\u2019s drop to the $60,000 zone<\/span><\/a>, which he described as \u201cone of the strongest corrections in its existence,\u201d Van de Poppe suggested that a reset of onchain indicators had now locked in.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat means: we can easily run to $92-95K without any breakdown of the bear market trend, and we can easily start a bull market from here,\u201d another post<\/span><\/a> stated on Sunday.<\/p>\n
Traders split over Bitcoin’s bear flag<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin pushing to $80,000 has implications for a multi-month bearish structure on the daily BTC\/USD chart. This bear flag, Bitcoin\u2019s second of 2026, is now tantalizingly close to being left behind.<\/p>\n
At the same time, a failure to break higher leaves price vulnerable to a comedown \u2014\u00a0possibly to new macro lows.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf it does lose this structure, a deeper move down in that 30\u201340% range wouldn\u2019t be surprising and the whole market probably feels it,\u201d trader and investor Crypto Storm wrote in a post on X<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cOnly real shift in this view is a clean daily close back above 80K, that would flip things bullish again.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/resizer.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/f=auto,onerror=redirect,w=896,q=90\/https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/HHYLk0QaYAAbBAp.jpeg?prefix=media%2Fcontent\")
<\/figure>\nBTC\/USDT one-day chart. Source: CryptoStorm\/X<\/em><\/p>\n
Trader BitBull is among those seeing failure as the likely outcome, telling<\/span><\/a> X followers that they would soon begin building short positions with a $60,000 target.<\/p>\n
\u201c$BTC bear flag is very close to completion,\u201d they summarized.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/resizer.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/f=auto,onerror=redirect,w=896,q=90\/https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/HHdZmScaoAAfpns.jpeg?prefix=media%2Fcontent\")
<\/figure>\nBTC\/USDT one-day chart. Source: BitBull\/X<\/em><\/p>\n
Consensus, however, is far from unanimous about where BTC\/USD will go next. For trader Jeff Sun, the signals are clear that Bitcoin bulls have already won out.<\/p>\n
\u201cSpot has now reclaimed $80,000 for the first time since January 31, 2026. This is a position I have been building via ETF since early March,\u201d he reported<\/span><\/a> on Monday.<\/p>\n
Sun described the structure as \u201cnot a bear flag\u201d based on the latest three-month price highs.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/resizer.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/f=auto,onerror=redirect,w=896,q=90\/https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/HHcZZLoaMAAvFxu.jpeg?prefix=media%2Fcontent\")
<\/figure>\nBTC\/USD one-day chart. Source: Jeff Sun\/X<\/em><\/p>\n
Like Sun, late last month, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, pointed to Bitcoin\u2019s rebound from the $60,000 area in early February.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThe rally off the $60,033 low could still be described as a bear flag (not unlike the bear market rally last fall), but my sense is that Bitcoin continues to build a large base here in preparation for the next major up wave,\u201d he told<\/span><\/a> X followers at the time.<\/p>\n
Fed rate cuts “over for now” as officials spar<\/h2>\n
As the US-Iran war grinds on for a third month, its impact on inflation is increasingly on officials\u2019 minds.<\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve\u2019s latest interest-rate meeting<\/span><\/a> underscored the Iran tensions, along with near three-year highs in its \u201cpreferred\u201d inflation gauge.<\/p>\n
Consensus over policy was noticeably under strain, and dissent from four members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made for the most conflicted meeting statement since the early 1990s.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe primary reason for dissent was against language in the meeting statement indicating an easing bias,\u201d trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented on the topic in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cLeading indicators of the fed funds rate indicates that the Fed\u2019s easing cycle is over for now.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/resizer.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/f=auto,onerror=redirect,w=728,q=90\/https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/Screenshot%202026-05-04%20at%2012.03.34.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent\")
<\/figure>\nFed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group<\/em><\/p>\n
As multiple senior Fed figures take to the stage this week and Chair Jerome Powell is replaced by Kevin Warsh<\/span><\/a> on May 15, data from CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool<\/span><\/a> shows that easing is the last thing that markets now expect this year.<\/p>\n
Risk assets traditionally struggle when policy is at risk of tightening. So far, however, stocks have shaken off any cold feet, with the S&P 500 hitting new record highs<\/span><\/a> last week.<\/p>\n
Continuing, Mosaic said that those highs were driven by a \u201csharp jump in corporate earnings.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIf inflation does start accelerating further in the months ahead, that could add significant pressure to stock valuations,\u201d it warned.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cHigh inflation tends to lead to high interest rates, which makes the present value of future corporate profits worth less in present value terms.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/resizer.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/f=auto,onerror=redirect,w=896,q=90\/https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/SPX_2026-05-04_12-02-15.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent\")
<\/figure>\nS&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n
Oil gains “fully priced in” despite Iran war<\/h2>\n
In analytics circles, there is growing conviction over the fate of global oil prices<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n
In his latest Commodity Report<\/span><\/a> on Monday, analyst Lukas Kuemmerle said that despite the ongoing supply squeeze, the overall trend still points to supply outweighing demand.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cBrent crude is currently trading around $112 per barrel, up from $61 at the start of the year. The price has tested the March and April highs three times in the past month \u2014 and each time it has been rejected,\u201d he noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is classic technical behaviour for a market where the bullish story is fully priced in.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/resizer.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/f=auto,onerror=redirect,w=896,q=90\/https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/1f7baed5-79ff-4c29-ac92-c62b939aff3d_2332x1586.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent\")
<\/figure>\nCrude oil futures one-day chart. Source: Lukas Kuemmerle<\/em><\/p>\n
Kuemmerle said that markets have not forgotten the \u201csupply growth\u201d narrative for 2026, and that an oil-price comedown is all the more likely because of it.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven Goldman Sachs, the most war-bullish of the major banks, sees Brent averaging $85 with the Hormuz disruption fully priced in,\u201d he continued.<\/p>\n
Brent spot passed $120 per barrel for the first time since 2022 last week, subsequently cooling before returning to $115 to start the week.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/resizer.cointelegraph.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/f=auto,onerror=redirect,w=896,q=90\/https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/SPOTBRENT_2026-05-04_11-29-05.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent\")
<\/figure>\nSpot Brent crude oil one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n
Kuemmerle, meanwhile, adds that \u201chedge funds that wanted to be long the Iran story are already long.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThe flow has turned,\u201d he concluded, saying that smart money \u201chas already repositioned for the reversal.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bitcoin MVRV ratio shows ongoing recovery<\/h2>\n
A key Bitcoin onchain metric is increasingly supporting the bull case this month.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Related: Crypto industry will be \u2018just fine\u2019 if CLARITY Act doesn\u2019t pass: Chris Perkins<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant<\/span><\/a> this week flags multimonth highs in Bitcoin\u2019s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio tool.<\/p>\n
MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin\u2019s market cap to the price at which the supply last moved, also known as its \u201crealized cap.\u201d<\/p>\n
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<\/figure>\n