<\/p>\n
Crypto analysts are divided over whether markets will see a major Bitcoin sell-off in May, a pattern that has emerged in the last two bear markets during US mid-term election years.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In May 2018, Bitcoin crashed from nearly $10,000 to about $7,000 by the end of the month. It happened again in May 2022, when Bitcoin fell nearly 30% from about $40,000 to $28,500 before falling further in June to $20,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n
With 2026 also a bear market year coinciding with a US mid-term election, there are concerns it could happen again.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThe most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history. Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect. Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time,\u201d crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar said<\/span><\/a> on Sunday.<\/p>\n Enkelaar said a similar move could see Bitcoin prices collapse<\/span><\/a> to $33,000 despite the advancement of key legislation<\/span><\/a>, the CLARITY Act, positive crypto sentiment from the Trump administration and potential trade deals between the US and China.<\/p>\n Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, also said Sunday that<\/span><\/a> there would be a higher probability of a new capitulation phase if Bitcoin remains under $78,000, with bears \u201cshowing signs of strength.\u201d<\/p>\n Bitcoin was trading at about $76,900 at the time of writing, down 5.6% over the past seven days.<\/p>\n Jeff Ko, chief analyst at the CoinEx exchange, told Cointelegraph on Monday that midterm election years have coincided with major Bitcoin bear markets, \u201cso some traders may be tempted to frame 2026 as another \u2018sell in May\u2019 setup.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n However, behind that historical seasonality were more concrete macro drivers, such as the Mt. Gox aftermath, China\u2019s ICO crackdown, Fed tightening and the Terra\/FTX collapses, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cThe calendar didn\u2019t cause those drawdowns \u2014 specific shocks did.\u201d\u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin slides below $79K on macro fears: Can fixed-income outflows save it?<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n Ko said he doesn\u2019t expect BTC to repeat the 70% to 80% drawdowns seen in past cycles because the market structure has fundamentally changed.<\/p>\n \u201cSpot ETFs, corporate treasury adoption, and the CLARITY Act moving through Congress have meaningfully broadened and institutionalized the buyer base compared with past cycles,\u201d he added.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIn my view, a move toward the mid-$60k or high-$50k range could be defensible under a macro shock or a significant ETF outflow cascade. But a move back to $33k would likely require something genuinely systemic to break, rather than simply a repeat of historical seasonality.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n MN Fund founder Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe was also bullish, saying<\/span><\/a> on X Sunday that the current Bitcoin price action \u201cdoesn\u2019t shout for new lows\u201d but is \u201cconsolidating after a run of 40%.\u201d<\/p>\n However, an important support level that is currently preventing a larger decline is the $76,000 area, he cautioned.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIf that level is lost, I would assume that the markets will see a further downward fall towards lower boundaries,\u201d he said.<\/p>\nThe calendar didn\u2019t cause previous crashes, analyst argues<\/h2>\n
Key support level must hold\u00a0<\/h2>\n