Bitcoin (BTC) is rebounding from a key on-chain support zone, putting the $78,000 level back in focus for bulls.<\/p>\n
Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n Bitcoin rebounded roughly 2.5% over the weekend to reach $74,000 on Sunday, with the recovery beginning near $72,500.<\/p>\n The local low came close to the realized price of BTC held for three to six months (orange), a cohort often used to gauge medium-term investor conviction. <\/p>\n BTC realized price by age vs. price. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/p>\n realised<\/p>\n Glassnode data placed that group’s cost basis near $71,400, which analyst Marcus Corvinus described as Bitcoin\u2019s “strongest near-term support.”<\/p>\n “This cohort is still holding profits, creating a strong incentive to defend the level,” Corvinus said<\/a> in a Sunday post.<\/p>\n The analyst highlighted $78,200 as the next potential upside target for Bitcoin<\/a> because the level aligns with the realized price of BTC held for three to six months (yellow). Bulls lost the level during the October 2025 market rout.<\/p>\n Bitcoin\u2019s rebound above its three-to-six-month holder cost basis (yellow) has historically preceded stronger returns over longer time frames since 2017.<\/p>\n After similar breakouts, BTC has averaged a 2.3% gain over the following 30 days, a 21.9% gain after 90 days, and a 36.6% gain after 180 days.<\/p>\n BTC’s 3m-6m cohort realized price vs. price. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/p>\n From Bitcoin\u2019s current level near $74,000, that would imply upside targets of roughly $75,700 in one month, $90,200 in three months, and $101,100 in six months.<\/p>\n\n
BTC’s short-term holders defend $71,400 cost basis<\/h2>\n
What happens after Bitcoin breaks above 3m-6m cost basis?<\/h3>\n
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