US-based users are the biggest political bettors on Polymarket, despite the crypto-based prediction market\u2019s efforts to restrict US citizens from using the decentralized platform, according to new research.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Blockchain research firm Allium estimated in a report published<\/a> on Thursday that US-based users are the single biggest political market of any country by contracts traded and wallet count on Polymarket \u2014 not to be confused with Polymarket US, which is a US-regulated platform that launched in December with a narrower set of markets.<\/p>\n \u201cBlocking access did not end US participation; it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume,\u201d the report said. \u201cThe demand is still there, now offshore and beyond US oversight.\u201d<\/p>\n The data suggests that Polymarket\u2019s efforts to restrict US users from its global platform have not entirely worked, adding to an expanding list of headaches<\/a> for the company in the fast-growing predictions market sector, which is under legal and political scrutiny.<\/p>\n Polymarket was forced to cut off US users’ access to its global platform as part of a $1.4 million settlement<\/a> with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022.<\/p>\n Allium based its figures on the 6% of wallets it tagged with a country, meaning the data should be seen as directional only. Source: <\/em>Allium<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Allium found that US users are more interested in foreign conflict-related markets than the rest of the platform\u2019s users, with five of the US cohort\u2019s top 12 markets by notional volume relating to the Iran war.<\/p>\n It also shows a lesser interest in election-related markets, which is a category of prediction markets allowed on Kalshi and Polymarket US.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cUS money pours into foreign wars, lately Iran, and largely skips the elections the global crowd trades,\u201d said Allium.\u00a0<\/p>\n Cointelegraph contacted Polymarket for comment.\u00a0<\/p>\n Allium\u2019s figures align with another study<\/a> published in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, who estimated that 30% of trading volume on Polymarket comes from the US.\u00a0<\/p>\n Crane estimated that people based in the US sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026, despite Polymarket blocking US-based IP addresses and VPNs, which could be used to skirt the block.<\/p>\n The researcher looked at the times of day the trades were made and the markets in which the trades were made to link certain trades to US users<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n An excerpt of Polymarket\u2019s FAQ page on its geographic restrictions. Source: <\/em>Polymarket<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Polymarket has reportedly been clamping down on users<\/a> who use VPNs by blocking certain IP addresses tied to VPN services, The Information reported in May.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Polymarket hit by $2.9M theft, users to be refunded\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Polymarket is completely blocked in more than 34 countries, the latest being Spain<\/a>, which blocked local users from Polymarket and Kalshi as a \u201cprecautionary measure\u201d as authorities open an investigation into whether the companies are operating without necessary licensing.\u00a0<\/p>\n Another four countries, including Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Poland, are in \u201cclose only,\u201d meaning users in these countries can close existing positions but cannot open new trades.\u00a0<\/p>\n There are also four restricted regions, Ontario in Canada, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine, where Polymarket is blocked but is available elsewhere in the country.\u00a0<\/p>\nPolymarket\u2019s effort to geoblock US users<\/h2>\n
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<\/figure>\n<\/p>\nWhere is Polymarket blocked?<\/h2>\n