{"id":433594,"date":"2026-07-10T13:03:06","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T07:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/bitcoins-bottom-needs-long-term-holders-to-stop-losing-280m-a-day-crypto-news\/"},"modified":"2026-07-10T13:09:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T07:39:54","slug":"bitcoins-bottom-needs-long-term-holders-to-stop-losing-280m-a-day-crypto-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/bitcoins-bottom-needs-long-term-holders-to-stop-losing-280m-a-day-crypto-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s bottom needs long-term holders to stop losing $280M a day &#8211; Crypto News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s climb from $58,300 to $64,400, then back to $62,700, over the past week is a bounce that still leaves the price below two important levels tracked by Glassnode: the True Market Mean near $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200.<\/p>\n<p>The firm places Bitcoin in the later stages of a bottoming process, which it frames as ongoing.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its June meeting on July 8, showing that all participants supported holding the federal funds target range <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-holds-64k-after-fed-revives-hike-risk-but-one-level-still-decides-whether-repair-is-real\/\">at 3.50% to 3.75%<\/a>, and the committee removed language from prior statements that had signaled a bias toward easing.<\/p>\n<p>Glassnode&#8217;s on-chain data indicate a market working through the kind of exhaustion that typically precedes a bottom, and the Fed&#8217;s language suggests a policy environment still weighing whether inflation requires a firmer response.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_546820\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-546820\" style=\"width: 1395px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><noscript><\/noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload wp-image-546820 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Photos_KbWqkf1TdH.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin's bounce is still below key cost-basis levels\" width=\"1395\" height=\"671\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Photos_KbWqkf1TdH.png 1395w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Photos_KbWqkf1TdH-300x144.png 300w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Photos_KbWqkf1TdH-1024x493.png 1024w, https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Photos_KbWqkf1TdH-768x369.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1395px) 100vw, 1395px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-546820\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A chart shows Bitcoin at $64,400, up from a $58,300 low but still below the $72,200 short-term cost basis and $76,600 True Market Mean.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Long-term holders are the signal to watch<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin trading below the True Market Mean matters because Glassnode treats that level as a cycle-wide cost-basis anchor. A sustained reclaim would point to broader repair than the current bounce has delivered.<\/p>\n<p>Glassnode&#8217;s <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/research.glassnode.com\/the-week-onchain-week-27-2026\/\">framing<\/a> points to long-term holder loss realization, the pace at which holders who bought Bitcoin more than 155 days ago are selling at a loss.<\/p>\n<p>That metric now accounts for 43% of total realized value on the network, up from 15% in early February, and recently peaked at nearly $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022.<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/companies\/glassnode\/\">Glassnode<\/a> says the current wave of long-term holder capitulation continues, and the market needs a meaningful compression in that number before it can credibly transition back toward bull market conditions.<\/p>\n<p>Spot Bitcoin ETF net flows have improved from a low near $193 million per day in early June to a 30-day average near $88.9 million per day now, a real recovery that still leaves the market <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-etfs-draw-500m-but-weak-demand-leaves-rebound-exposed\/\">in a net-outflow regime<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Trading volume is running at a 30-day average of about $650 million to $950 million per day, far below the October 2025 peak near $4.4 billion.<\/p>\n<p>A return to that peak would require roughly $3.45 billion to $3.75 billion per day in additional ETF turnover, a scale of activity current flows are nowhere close to producing.<\/p>\n<p>The options market&#8217;s open-interest put\/call ratio fell to 0.56, the lowest reading of 2026, while perpetual futures funding sits well below the 0.01% level Glassnode uses as a neutral benchmark, with both readings less bearish than the spot and ETF data.<\/p>\n<p>The same options <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/market\/\">market<\/a> still prices real downside protection, with a 25-delta skew that stays bid across maturities, meaning traders are paying up for puts relative to calls at every time frame Glassnode tracks.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Signal<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\">Current reading<\/th>\n<th>What it means<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Long-term holder losses<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">~$280M\/day peak<\/td>\n<td>Capitulation remains elevated<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>LTH losses as share of realized value<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">43%<\/td>\n<td>Long-term holders are driving a large share of realized stress<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ETF netflows<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">~-$88.9M\/day 30-day average<\/td>\n<td>Outflows have eased but remain negative<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ETF trading volume<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">$650M\u2013$950M\/day<\/td>\n<td>Institutional activity remains far below peak<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ETF volume gap vs Oct. 2025 peak<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">~$3.45B\u2013$3.75B\/day<\/td>\n<td>Return to peak demand would require a major volume recovery<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Options put\/call ratio<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">0.56<\/td>\n<td>Less bearish positioning than spot\/ETF data imply<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Perpetual funding<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Below 0.01% neutral level<\/td>\n<td>Leverage demand remains muted<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>25-delta skew<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Puts bid across maturities<\/td>\n<td>Traders still pay for downside protection<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>What the Fed minutes said and what Bitcoin needs<\/h2>\n<p>The <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/bitcoin-rally-now-depends-on-one-fed-document-coming\/\">minutes<\/a> describe participants seeing inflation running higher and staying well above the Fed&#8217;s 2% objective, pointing to tariffs, supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and AI-related demand as drivers, with many participants saying elevated commodity prices and supply disruptions could persist longer than officials had expected.<\/p>\n<div id=\"cs-inline-newsletter-6a509b0e46a2b\" class=\"cs-inline-newsletter\" data-inline-newsletter=\"\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__inner\">\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__content\"> <span class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__eyebrow\">CryptoSlate Daily Brief<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__title\">Daily signals, zero noise.<\/h3>\n<p class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__copy\">Market-moving headlines and context delivered every morning in one tight read.<\/p>\n<p> <span><i class=\"fa-regular fa-bolt\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/> 5-minute digest<\/span> <span><i class=\"fa-regular fa-star\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/> 100k+ readers<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__form-shell\">\n<p class=\"cs-inline-newsletter__privacy\">Free. No spam. Unsubscribe any time.<\/p>\n<p> <i class=\"fa-regular fa-circle-xmark\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/> <span>Whoops, looks like there was a problem. Please try again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <i class=\"fa-regular fa-circle-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/> <span>You\u2019re subscribed. Welcome aboard.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Most participants described a scenario where inflation pressures ease enough to hold rates steady or eventually cut them. They also discussed a second scenario in which inflation remains elevated due to AI demand, the Middle East conflict, or tariffs, and said that in that case, policy firming would be warranted.<\/p>\n<p>In the case where investors&#8217; capitulation cools first, long-term holder losses compress sharply toward $100 million to $150 million a day, ETF flows turn neutral to positive with volume climbing back above $1 billion a day, and incoming inflation data softens enough to take the Fed&#8217;s policy-firming scenario off the table.<\/p>\n<p>Under that path, Bitcoin reclaims the short-term holder cost basis first, then works toward testing the True Market Mean itself.<\/p>\n<p>In the case where the <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/macro\/\">macro<\/a> backdrop keeps sellers active, long-term holder losses\u00a0remain near or above $250 million per day,\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/etf\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ETF<\/a> net flows remain negative, and Fed rhetoric keeps policy-firming\u00a0risk alive through the next inflation prints.<\/p>\n<p>Along that path, Bitcoin remains structurally vulnerable and could retest the lower end of its bear-market range near its realized <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoslate.com\/price-watch\/\">price<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Using absolute values to frame market stress, Glassnode\u2019s two pressure points, long-term holder losses near $280 million a day and ETF net outflows near $88.9 million a day, put the combined stress reading near $369 million a day.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Condition<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\">Bull path<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\">Bear path<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Long-term holder losses<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Compress toward $100M\u2013$150M\/day<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Stay near or above $250M\/day<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ETF netflows<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Turn neutral to positive<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Remain negative<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ETF trading volume<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Rises above $1B\/day and keeps climbing<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Stays below $1B\/day<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Fed backdrop<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Inflation softens; policy-firming risk fades<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Inflation risks keep firming scenario alive<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>First technical\/on-chain reclaim<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Short-term holder cost basis near $72.2K<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Price remains below recent-buyer breakeven<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Larger confirmation level<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">True Market Mean near $76.6K<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Lower bear-market range remains in play<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Article takeaway<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Bottoming process starts confirming<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">Bottoming process stretches out<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s bottoming process would start to look more credible if three conditions develop together: long-term holder losses compress, ETF outflows approach neutrality, and institutional volume climbs back toward the level it reached in October 2025.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed&#8217;s June minutes gave the market fewer reasons to expect an easy path.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s climb from $58,300 to $64,400, then back to $62,700, over the past week is a bounce that still leaves the price below two important levels tracked by Glassnode: the True Market Mean near $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200. The firm places Bitcoin in the later stages of a bottoming process, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":433595,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[230,225,221,227,226,228,229,60,223,224,222],"class_list":["post-433594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency","tag-brave","tag-coinbase","tag-crypto","tag-decentralised","tag-decentralized","tag-decentralized-exchange","tag-erc-20","tag-featured","tag-meme-coin","tag-robinhood","tag-solana"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433594","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433594"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433594\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":433598,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433594\/revisions\/433598"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/433595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dripp.zone\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}