Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin’s $64K rebound has 3 days before its next big challenge threatens to derail momentum – Crypto News

Published

4 weeks ago

July 11, 2026

Dripp

Bitcoin traded near $64,100 on Saturday as the clock ticked toward a key test for its rebound. June’s US consumer price index is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 14, leaving the market with about three days before the next major macro catalyst.

The largest crypto asset had gained about 2.6% over seven days, according to CryptoSlate market data, but 24-hour volume was running 21% below its recent average. Bitcoin has rebounded, but buyers have yet to fully commit.

The scheduled inflation report will hit a rates market that makes that gap harder to ignore.

Futures-derived probabilities using CME FedWatch methodology put a 64.6% chance on the Federal Reserve holding its 3.50%-3.75% target range on July 29 and a 35.4% chance on a quarter-point hike.

By September, markets see a 50.9% chance of rates reaching 3.75%-4.00% and an 18.8% chance of 4.00%-4.25%. July appears too soon for the next Fed move. CPI will show whether rate-cut hopes have room to return or if fears of a hike take over.

Bitcoin rally now depends on one Fed document coming Wednesday

Bitcoin’s bounce from a 21-month low rests on a single weak jobs report, and Wednesday’s Fed minutes will show whether officials share the market’s doubts.

Jul 7, 2026 · Andjela Radmilac

ETF demand has offered only tentative support. US spot Bitcoin funds took in a net $90.4 million on July 10 after losing a combined $180.2 million over the prior two sessions, fund flow data showed.

BlackRock put $209M behind Bitcoin’s rebound but can it last?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $266 million on July 6, with IBIT supplying about $209 million, making the next few sessions a test of whether ETF demand can keep supporting BTC.

Jul 7, 2026 · Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright

Bitcoin futures open interest was near $47.3 billion, with modest positive funding and short liquidations dominating the previous 24 hours. That combination points to active positioning and only modest long exposure.

Three CPI paths for Bitcoin

An upside inflation surprise would be the hardest test. The two-year Treasury yield ended July 10 at 4.21% and the 10-year at 4.56%, both higher on the day, according to Treasury data.