Dow Jones targets 34,600 as Fed rate pause bets surge

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Dow Jones breaches 41,200 for the first time ever as rate cut rally continues – Crypto News

Published

2 years ago

July 18, 2024

Dripp

Dow Jones climbs on Wednesday as Fedspeak keeps rate cut hopes pinned.
Fed rate cut expectations have fully priced in a September rate cut.
One last batch of US inflation figures remains before the Fed’s July rate call.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) clipped into further gains on Wednesday, extending the week’s hard rally on sky-high rate cut expectations and stepped into yet another all-time record high in intraday trading. Investors are piling into securities poised to capitalize on broadly-expected Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets have fully priced in a rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathers for a rate call on September 18. Rate traders currently see 98% odds of a first quarter-point rate cut in September, and particularly wistful markets are pricing in up to three cuts by the end of 2024, well above the Fed’s own forecast of one or two.

As markets weigh odds of the Fed getting bullied into a rate cut cycle by cooling inflation data, one last round of US inflation figures remains on the data docket before the Fed’s July rate meeting on July 31. US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) inflation is due on Friday, July 26 and represents the last key inflation data that will contour investor expectations for Fed forward guidance heading deeper into the second half of the year.

Dow Jones news

Dow Jones is getting dragged higher on Wednesday, with over two-thirds of the index firmly in the green for the day, with losses concentrated once again in key tech sector companies. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) tumbled -3.3% to $186.66 per share on Wednesday, closely followed by Apple Inc. (AAPL) which backslid -2.5% to $228.87 per share. On the high side, Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) soared another 4.0%, setting a new all-time high above $571.00 per share.

Dow Jones technical outlook

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has put the rubber to the road, extending into record highs another 250 points on Wednesday and chalking up a sixth straight trading day of firm gains. DJIA has climbed nearly 5% over six consecutive trading sessions.

With Dow Jones etching in a fresh record high of 41,185.87, bearish technicals have evaporated and short interest will be waiting for a pullback before even bothering trying to drag bids back down to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 37,822.88.

Dow Jones five minute chart

Dow Jones daily chart

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.