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Gold holds recovery on soft US core PCE report, US Dollar eyes support – Crypto News
- Gold price attracts bids below $1,860.00 after a mild correction in the US Dollar.
- The US economy remains resilient due to falling inflation, stable labor demand, and robust consumer spending.
- Fed Kashkari said that current interest rates are not sufficiently restrictive to bring down inflation to 2%.
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to extend recovery despite the soft United States Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index report for August. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that monthly Core PCE grew at a nominal pace of 0.1%, slower than expectations and the former pace of 0.2%. The annual core PCE data decelerated to 3.9% as expected against July’s reading of 4.3%. The headline PCE expanded at a higher pace of 0.4% vs. July’s reading of 0.2% but slower than expectations of 0.5%. On an annualized basis, the economic data accelerated nominally to 3.5% as expected due to rising energy prices.
The upward move in the precious metal seems short-lived as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers look set for one more interest rate increase by the year-end amid a resilient US economy and persistent inflation pressures.
The US economy has been performing well on the grounds of inflation, labor market, and consumer spending but factory activity is still a concern for the authorities amid a poor demand outlook. Investors will keenly focus on the Manufacturing PMI report for September, which will be published on Monday, for further clues about the current health of the factory sector. Markets expect the PMI data to signal that factory activity contracted for the 11th consecutive month.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price turns sideways as US Dollar finds support
- Gold price aims to extend recovery despite a soft US PCE price index report for August while the US Dollar discovers an interim support after correcting to near 105.60.
- The Core PCE softened more than expectations while headline data accelerated as anticipated due to rising energy prices.
- Recently, the odds for Federal Reserve (Fed)’s interest rates remaining steady at 5.25%-5.50% were trimmed as policymakers delivered hawkish remarks and Durable Goods Orders surprisingly expanded in August.
- On Wednesday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said that he is unsure whether the central bank has hiked enough to bring down core inflation to 2%.
- Meanwhile, Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin advocated for a ‘wait and watch’ approach as a probable government shutdown could complicate the Fed’s ability to assess the state of the economy due to the possible interruption of economic data releases.
- US Durable Goods Orders for August unexpectedly rose by 0.2% against expectations of a 0.5% decline. In July, Orders contracted by a sharp 5.6%. The US Manufacturing PMI has been contracting for the past 10 months. Still, upbeat order data for equipment has improved the sector’s outlook.
- As per the CME Group Fedwatch tool, chances that interest rates will remain steady at 5.25%-5.50% at the November monetary policy meeting have recovered to 83% from 77% on Thursday. Traders see a 66% chance for interest rates remaining unchanged for the remainder of the year, up from 58% on Thursday.
- While the recovery in energy prices could have a temporary impact on US inflation, rising house rentals could keep inflation sticky. Fed’s Barkin said on Thursday that housing will be key to tracking the progress towards taming inflation in the next few quarters, with risks that rising home prices could also boost market rents.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) faces selling pressure near a fresh 10-month high at 106.80 as the risk-aversion theme loses momentum. Still, the odds for a recovery are high as the US economy appears to be handling higher interest rates while other economies are struggling.
- The US economy has been showing a resilient labor market, household demand, and decreasing inflation. Still, its manufacturing sector has been contracting consistently for the past 10 months, according to PMI data.
- After US PCE Price Index data, investors will shift their focus to the Manufacturing PMI report for September, to be released by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) on Monday.
- The US Manufacturing PMI is seen improving to 47.8 from August’s reading of 47.6 but will remain below the 50.0 threshold which signals a contraction in activity. This would be the 11th month of contraction in a row.
Technical Analysis: Gold price trades inside Thursday’s range
Gold price finds an interim support after printing a fresh six-month low below $1,860.00. The four-day losing spell in Gold price appears to have halted, but for a sustained recovery the asset has to recapture the crucial resistance at $1,900.00. The broader bias remains bearish as the 20-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have delivered a bear cross. A bounce-back move in the precious metal is also backed by oversold momentum oscillators.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
