Second Bitcoin ETF issuer predicts BTC hitting $1M – but cuts timeline to within the next US Presidential term

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Second Bitcoin ETF issuer predicts BTC hitting $1M – Crypto News

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3 months ago

May 10, 2026

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Matthew Sigel of VanEck said Bitcoin could reach $1 million by the next US Presidential term.

That puts a 1,150% increase as a 2031 target inside a market that is still trying to prove it can hold the $80,000 area.

CryptoSlate’s Bitcoin page shows BTC near $80,200 on May 9, with a market capitalization near $1.61 trillion and an all-time high of $126,198 set on Oct. 6, 2025.

A move to $200,000, another price target being batted around lately, would require Bitcoin to rise roughly 2.5 times from that level. A move to $1 million would require roughly 12.5 times.

Bitcoin’s $150,000 forecast slash proves the institutional “sure thing” is actually a high-stakes gamble for 2026

Yet, new data shows $50 billion in ETF inflows could fundamentally break the four-year cycle and trap retail bears.

Jan 23, 2026 · Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright

Bitcoin has produced larger percentage moves before, but the current forecast cycle now rests on a market question: whether the latest institutional demand is strong enough to absorb coins being sold into the rebound.

Bitcoin price chart showing projected Bitcoin cycle highs and pullbacks across multiple halving periods.

Why seven-figure math is back

The VanEck call lands alongside other seven-figure frameworks. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan laid out a formal $1 million model in March, arguing that Bitcoin can reach seven figures by gaining share as the store-of-value market expands.

In his model, the market grows to about $121 trillion over 10 years, and Bitcoin reaches $1 million if it captures about 17% of the total.

That is a different time horizon from Sigel’s reported five-year view, but the logic overlaps. Both depend less on a single trading catalyst and more on Bitcoin becoming a larger part of how institutions, advisers, sovereign entities, and younger investors think about long-term savings outside the fiat banking system.

VanEck’s own research desk had already published a longer-range version of that argument. In a 2024 Bitcoin 2050 scenario, the firm modeled a possible $2.9 million Bitcoin price by 2050 if BTC becomes a meaningful medium of exchange and reserve asset.

That report used assumptions around trade settlement, reserve holdings, and Bitcoin scaling infrastructure. The newly reported call is more immediate, but it comes from the same broad research posture: Bitcoin as a macro asset whose valuation depends on adoption beyond crypto-native buyers.

If the thesis is only a trading call, the next resistance level carries most of the weight. If the thesis is that adoption math, ETF flows, portfolio allocation, sovereign reserve behavior, and the size of the global store-of-value market carry more weight than a single weekly candle.

The near-term price frame is less clean. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee’s $200,000 to $250,000 Bitcoin range for 2026 should also be part of the conversation.

Prior CryptoSlate coverage had already placed Lee’s $200,000 forecast among a wide 2026 target set that also included more conservative and more aggressive institutional calls.

Arthur Hayes, the Maelstrom CIO and BitMEX co-founder, is cited as aiming for a shorter-term $125,000 target tied to liquidity and war-driven spending.

Together, those calls make Bitcoin look like it is re-entering a target-heavy phase. Hayes’ framework is macro-liquidity and event-driven. Lee’s is a 2026 market-cycle view.

Bitwise’s model is a store-of-value share calculation. VanEck’s reported call compresses a seven-figure outcome into roughly half a decade.

That difference should keep us grounded. A cluster of bullish forecasts can shift sentiment, but the market structure still has to carry the price there. The Fear and & Greed Index still sits firmly in the ‘fear’ category.

Bitcoin’s next breakout will depend on whether investors treat $80K as relief, resistance, or the start of a new recovery

BTC is testing the exact zone where short-term holders typically either capitulate or hold firm.

May 2, 2026 · Andjela Radmilac

The low-$80,000 test carries the forecast

Recent CryptoSlate coverage framed Bitcoin’s rebound above $80,000 as a live test between seller supply and ETF demand. Long-term holders have been taking profits into strength, while spot Bitcoin ETF buyers have helped absorb supply.

That standoff is why the $90,000 area keeps appearing as the next upside test.