others
US Dollar trades neutral ahead of NFPs, strong labor data limits the downside – Crypto News
- The DXY Index recovered from a daily low of around 102.20 to trade flat on the day.
- ADP Employment Change figures from December came in better than expected. Weekly Jobless Claims were also positive.
- Weak S&P Global PMI data may limit the upside for the USD.
- Dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) eased somewhat but are still high.
The US Dollar (USD) gained traction during the American session, with the Dollar Index (DXY) trading at 102.45 after an initial dip to 102.20. That trend was primarily driven by favorable ADP Employment Change for December and Initial Jobless Claims figures, which added traction to the Greenback’s daily movements.
With the Fed’s recent judgment over the easing of inflation, there’s a perception of a dovish stance as officials anticipated no rate hikes in 2024 with a possible easing of 75 bps. Current market bets suggest that investors are seeing higher odds of cuts in March and May, but those bets eased somewhat in the last sessions, which gave the US Dollar traction. Upcoming December labor market reports could shift expectations.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar strengthens on strong labor market figures
- US Initial Jobless Claims were reported lower than expected at 202K vs the consensus of 216K for the week ending on December 30.
- The ADP Employment Change, which is a gauge of employment in the private sector, overshot estimates, coming in at 164K in December vs the 115K expected.
- The S&P Global Composite PMI from December came in at 50.9, lower than the 51.00 expected.
- On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate for the last month of 2023 will be closely watched.
- The US bond yields are edging upwards. The 2-year yield is at 4.38%, the 5-year yield is at 3.97%, and the 10-year yield is at 4.00%.
- CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets have priced in a hold in the upcoming January meeting with 15% odds of a rate cut. However, markets are pricing higher odds of rate cuts in March and May 2024.
Technical Analysis: DXY bulls hold momentum but still have some work to do
The indicators on the daily chart reflect that DXY bulls are gaining ground. The positive slope and positive territory positioning of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that buying momentum is prevailing. Further backing this is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showing green bars on the rise, which further underscores the growing strength in the buyers’ camp.
In contrast, the index’s positioning with regard to the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) offers a mixed outlook. The index stays above the 20-day SMA, highlighting the short-term buying momentum, but it is still below both the 100 and 200-day SMAs. This indicates that bears are trying to maintain a foothold in larger time frames. Still, their hold appears to be weakening, especially in the short term.
Therefore, while the long-term trend might favor bears, the short-term analysis indicates stronger upside momentum steered by the bullish camp — with both the RSI and MACD affirming this assertion.
Support levels: 102.20 (20-day SMA),102.00, 101.50.
Resistance levels: 102.70, 102.90, 103.00.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation.
A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work.
The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower.
NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa.
Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold.
Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components.
At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary.
The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
