Will RBA resume interest-rate hiking cycle, as markets expect? – Crypto News – Crypto News
Connect with us
Will RBA resume interest-rate hiking cycle, as markets expect? Will RBA resume interest-rate hiking cycle, as markets expect?

others

Will RBA resume interest-rate hiking cycle, as markets expect? – Crypto News

Published

3 years ago

on

Share:

  • Interest rate in Australia is set to rise by 25 bps from 4.10% to 4.35% in November.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Michele Bullock could stick to the hawkish tone.
  • Volatility could ramp up around the Australian Dollar on Melbourne Cup day.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to resume tightening when it meets on Melbourne Cup Tuesday, having held the benchmark interest rate steady for four straight meetings.

The central focus of the RBA meeting will be on whether Governor Michele Bullock sticks to the recent hawkish rhetoric, hinting at further interest rate hikes.

Reserve Bank of Australia set to resume interest-rate hikes

The current market positioning suggests that a 25 basis points (bps) increase to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Official Cash Rate (OCR) is fully baked on Tuesday. The decision will be announced at 03:30 GMT, with the RBA expected to lift the interest rate from 4.10% to 4.35% after a four-month hiatus from the tightening cycle.

The big four Australian banks, ANZ, CBA, Westpac and NAB, revised their call for an RBA rate hike, following the resurgence of inflation and hawkish commentary from the RBA policymakers.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% in the third quarter, above market forecasts of 1.1% and up from a 0.8% increase the previous quarter. For September alone, the CPI rose 5.6% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in August.

A closely-watched measure of core CPI, the trimmed mean, rose 1.2% in the third quarter, topping expectations of 1.1%. Meanwhile, Australian Retail Sales rose for the first time in four quarters in the July-September period, rebounding 0.2% QoQ as against the previous drop of 0.6%.

Despite signs of a cooling Australian labor market, robust consumer spending supports the case for the RBA to resume interest rate hikes. Commenting on the inflation data, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock said that goods prices are coming down but services inflation remains persistent. “Services inflation is higher than what we are comfortable with,” she said.

Bullock had mentioned last month, “[the RBA’s] board will not hesitate to raise rates if there is a material upward revision to the inflation outlook.”

Christopher Kent, the RBA’s assistant governor of financial markets, had said at a Bloomberg event in early October, the board “may need to raise interest rates in the future to bring inflation down. I think that’s a reflection of the fact that we wouldn’t want it to be much slower.”

Previewing the RBA policy decision, analysts at BBH said,  “Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday and is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 4.35%.  A handful of analysts polled by Bloomberg look for steady rates, while World Interest Rate Probabilities (WIRP) suggest 50% odds.  Those odds rise to 75% for December 5 and full priced in for February 6, with odds of a second hike topping out near 35% in Q2 2024.”

How will the RBA interest rate decision impact AUD/USD?

Amidst increased expectations of an interest rate hike, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to witness big moves on the RBA policy announcement. Traders will closely scrutinize the RBA policy statement for its language, signaling whether Governor Bullock keeps the door open for more rate hikes.

Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, notes key technicals to trade AUD/USD on the policy outcome. “AUD/USD is sitting at the highest level in three months, clinging to the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6511 ahead of Tuesday’s RBA showdown. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has flatlined but holds comfortably above the 50 level, keeping the upside risks intact for the Aussie pair.”

“Aussie buyers need acceptance above 100-day SMA at 0.6511 on a daily closing basis to initiate a meaningful recovery toward the downward-sloping 200-day SMA at 0.6618. The next upside barrier is seen at the 0.6650 psychological level. On the downside, static support aligns at 0.6450, below which a test of Friday’s low of 0.6419 cannot be ruled out. Further south, the 50-day SMA at 0.6395 could come into play.”

Economic Indicator

Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision

RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.

Read more.

Next release: 11/07/2023 03:30:00 GMT

Frequency: Irregular

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

Central banks FAQs

Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.

A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.

A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.

Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Trending